Cryptosphere Academician: The 9.3 Bitcoin (BTC) wash-out trap is unfolding. Analyzing the underlying truth of Bitcoin bulls vs bears tug of war? Latest market analysis and operational suggestions explained.
Bitcoin is currently priced at 77,300. The market is repeatedly oscillating, and the game between bulls and bears is extremely fierce. Watching the price jump up and down, many traders are repeatedly stopped out, making them more hesitant in operation. In a bull market, the biggest fear is chasing the rise and killing the dip. The market will not go up in a straight line indefinitely—intermediate corrections and shake-outs are the norm. Do not let short-term fluctuations disrupt your mentality. Understanding the structure, guarding your position and stop loss is much more important than frequent, back-and-forth trading. For now, around 77,000, is this a retracement for accumulation or a topping correction? Technical signals have already given some clues. Let's objectively break down the current situation based on the price action.
The daily K-line is standing firm above the EMA15 and EMA30 moving averages, and the mid-to-long term moving averages are still upward, meaning the overall bullish structure has not been completely broken. The Fibonacci 78.6% level at 72,620 forms a key support, with strong resistance above at 84,074. The MACD indicator’s red bars are continuously contracting, and the DIF line has signs of turning downward and approaching the DEA, showing that bullish momentum is gradually weakening. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the price has fallen from the upper Bollinger band to run above the mid-band. On the daily chart, this is a high-level consolidation after an advance, without clear reversal signals, but the short-term momentum to break higher is insufficient; it is more likely to repeatedly test lower supports, awaiting a direction.
The 4-hour K-line has fallen below the EMA15 and is trading beneath it. Short-term moving averages are starting to flatten out, and short-cycle bull strength is weakening. Key resistance above is at 82,828, and the nearby Fibonacci 78.6% level at 77,521 is acting as close resistance. The first support below is 73,355 and further strong support at 70,429. The 4-hour MACD has moved above the zero axis, with red bars nearly exhausted, with potential death cross risk. Bollinger Bands are shifting from expansion to contraction, and price oscillates around the middle band. The 4-hour chart is in a high-level retracement and consolidation phase, slightly weak in the short term. If it cannot hold above 77,521 again, it will further retest the support area below.
Short-term reference:
Long from 74,000 to 73,400 towards the north, stop loss 500 points, target 77,500 to 80,000
Short from 77,500 to 78,200 towards the south, stop loss 500 points, target 76,500 to 75,500
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