Is gold no longer just a safe haven? Leading institutions turn bullish, optimistic about both US Treasury bonds and tech stocks

Source: Golden Ten Data

Schroders has recently upgraded its gold rating to bullish, believing that strong central bank gold purchases have created structural support. Although the firm warns of overheated AI valuations and market concentration risk, it still maintains a positive stance on tech stocks and US Treasuries.

Amid the steady upward movement of the global financial markets, renowned wealth and investment management institution Schroders has made significant adjustments to its asset allocation strategy. In its latest multi-asset research report,

The Schroders investment team pointed out,

This "structural foundation" from global central banks not only offsets some of the profit-taking pressure brought by high prices, but also signals that gold is playing an irreplaceable role as a risk hedge within investment portfolios.

Meanwhile, analysis from TD Securities has confirmed this optimistic sentiment, forecasting that gold prices may briefly dip to $4,200 in the short term, while the target price for 2027 has been raised to $5,350.

Alongside its positive outlook for gold, Schroders has adopted a "cautiously optimistic" view of risk assets overall.

The Schroders multi-asset investment team believes that resilient global economic growth and solid corporate profits provide a foundation for the current pro-cyclical allocation strategy.

However, Schroders has also keenly noticed potential “chill.” The report specifically mentions that valuations for AI-related stocks have already entered expansion territory,

Nevertheless, the firm believes that, as long as global economic growth does not deteriorate materially, this pro-cyclical allocation direction remains optimal.

In terms of specific sector layout, Schroders has further strengthened its preference for the technology sector, expanded its holdings in German stocks, and remains particularly optimistic about industrial and defense segments with growth potential. To capture gains from the commodity cycle, the company continues to hold positions in global mining giants and energy producers.

It is worth noting that Schroders now also adopts an active stance in the fixed income field. Based on the highly attractive real yields of US Treasuries, the firm has tactically increased its holdings of US government bonds.

Looking ahead, Schroders advises investors to closely watch three main "variables": first, the trend in inflation data—should inflation pick up again, the logic for allocating US Treasuries will face a challenge; second, whether global economic growth will slow more than expected; third, whether market confidence in AI investment returns will waver. Against the backdrop of already stretched valuations, any “surprise” in key data could trigger market adjustments.

Editor: Liu Wanli SF014