Indonesia's trade surplus may persist in August, but rising oil prices and strong imports pose downside risks

(1) Maybank analysts Brian Lee and Chua Hak Bin expect that Indonesia is likely to continue recording a trade surplus in August, mainly benefiting from the easing of delayed nickel exports and the early shipment of coal, palm oil, and nickel ahead of the new export reporting regulations (coming into effect on September 1). (2) However, rising oil prices and strong imports of capital goods may put further pressure on the surplus; at the same time, growing domestic biodiesel demand and disruptions potentially caused by El Niño could further limit export volumes. (3) The bank has also raised its forecast for Malaysia's 2026 current account deficit as a percentage of GDP from the previous 1% to 2%, reflecting broader pressures on regional trade prospects.