Refinery to the world: Energy expert Anas Alhajji on India's surprising fuel advantage

EconomicTimes2026/09/01 04:00

By:EconomicTimes

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India didn't just weather the worst oil crisis in a generation but emerged as a net winner, overtaking Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to become the top supplier of petrol, diesel and jet fuel to Kenya, while its fuel exports to Africa climbed to their highest level ever.

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It was the only economy in Asia that fully recovered its oil imports after the shock, refilled its strategic reserves and resumed exporting, energy economist Dr. Anas Alhajji said at Elara Capital's Ashwamedh — Elara India Dialogue 2026. While other big Asian economies stayed on the back foot, India kept moving.

The scale of what India pulled off comes into focus against the backdrop of the crisis itself. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf passage that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil, has been largely blocked since late February, after a war with Iran shut it down. Alhajji calls it the biggest crisis of our lifetime, and not just for oil: the helium that chip factories depend on, a large share of the world's fertilizer, and the methanol used in cleaner fuels all move through the same chokepoint. When it jams, he notes, prices jump and shortages spread far beyond the petrol pump.

Against that backdrop, India kept its refineries running at full tilt, topped up its emergency stocks, and turned itself into a supplier the rest of the world could buy from. It is the "refinery to the world" strategy that Indian policy has been chasing for years.

Alhajji is careful to flag that this is not a clean victory. India leans heavily on the Gulf, and the crisis has battered the Gulf economies it depends on. More pointedly, the same blocked strait that has let India profit by selling fuel also threatens it from another direction: India's fertilizer plants run on Gulf gas, and a large share of global fertilizer trade moves through Hormuz. The passage that has made India look strong sits right beside its biggest vulnerability as it needs that route open to grow its food.

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The much-hyped alternatives look thinner on closer inspection, too. The US deal for Venezuelan oil, pitched as a major new source of supply, is built around a headline figure that describes oil still in the ground rather than oil that can actually be pumped, the realistic volume is a fraction of that number. The crude itself is also the wrong type for making petrol, and first barrels are years away. There is, in short, no quick substitute for the Gulf.

The takeaway, in Alhajji's framing, is that this kind of crisis is not a one-off. Chokepoints like Hormuz can be squeezed again, and will be. The countries that come out ahead next time will be the ones that keep refining capacity running, diversify their supplier base instead of leaning on one region, and store emergency oil well away from the danger points.

India has largely pulled this off on instinct so far. The task now, as the crisis window shows, is to turn that instinct into a plan before the next shock tests it. The strait will reopen eventually but the advantage India has stumbled into will not wait around forever.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Refinery to the world: Energy expert Anas Alhajji on India's surprising fuel advantage

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