FACTBOX-Wall Street divided on Fed policy path as Barclays joins hawkish camp

Updates with Barclays' Fed forecast

Aug 31 - Barclays became the latest brokerage to forecast rate hikes this year after hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, widening the split among Wall Street firms over whether inflation risks could drive further tightening.

Speaking on Friday, Warsh said central bank policymakers would "have work to do" if they were not confident inflation was returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, his clearest indication yet that an increase in lending rates could be needed.

Focus now turns to the Fed's September 15-16 policy meeting, where officials will weigh upcoming inflation and employment data as they decide on the interest-rate trajectory.

Traders are pricing in about a 62% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, up from 35.4% before Warsh's Jackson Hole speech last week, and an 88% chance that rates will be higher by December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli, Eileen Soreng, Joyjeet Das, Harikrishnan Nair and Pooja Desai)

((JoelJose@thomsonreuters.com;))