Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0525 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge lower in Asian trade, trimming some of Friday's massive rises in short-end yields following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech in Jackson Hole. "Chair Warsh struck a broadly bullish tone on growth while emphasizing inflation as the Fed's primary concern," TD Securities' strategists say in a note. However, he stopped short of signaling a September hike and TD Securities' base case remains for the Fed to stay on hold, they say. The two-year Treasury yield falls 2 basis points to 4.328%, while the 10-year Treasury yield falls declines 0.8 basis points to 4.713%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0515 GMT - Inflation framing was the centrepiece of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech, referenced several times in the context of the work still to do and adherence to the 2% price target, Impax Asset Management's Ross Pamphilon says in a note. "We expect a much quieter Fed with a belief that forward guidance is ill-suited to normal times," the fixed income CIO says. While Warsh gave no direct signal for September, "this speech does increase the odds of a hike," Pamphilon says. Overall, the speech was clearly hawkish and led to a flattening of the curve, with the front end selling off. "The speech left zero doubt with respect to the inflation focus." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0514 GMT - Federal Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a clear and hawkish speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, "walking back his communication mistakes in July," SEB's Fed watcher and U.S. economist Elisabet Kopelman says in a note. "While Warsh did not send clear signals on the timing of rate changes, the speech was supportive of market expectations of a rate hike during the fall--whether in September or by year-end," she says. Inflation and the balance within a currently split FOMC will be decisive but the speech indicates an upside risk to SEB's forecast that rates have peaked, Kopelman says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0506 GMT - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks provided the market with what participants hoped for, a more thorough view of the economy and inflation, which appeared to satisfy investor concerns, Aptus Capital Advisors' John Luke Tyner says in a note. Warsh's comments were tilted more hawkish than the message he delivered at the July FOMC press conference, the portfolio manager and head of fixed income says. "His comments indicated that underlying inflation trends have not meaningfully improved, and if they don't improve quickly there is more work to do at the Fed." This reassured market participants that Warsh and team aren't going to sit back and wait even longer for the inflation target to be achieved, Tyner says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0506 GMT - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments complicate the AI trade, Tiger Brokers market strategist James Ooi says in a note. Warsh said at the Jackson Hole symposium that the Fed policy remains unrestrictive given rapid business capex growth, much of it AI-related. Investors now have to weigh whether capex growth could increase the odds of tighter monetary policy, Ooi says. Higher interest rates raise discount rates, weighing on AI hardware valuations, he adds. Asian tech hardware stocks fall after U.S. semiconductor shares declined following Warsh's hawkish speech on Friday. SK Hynix falls 2.5%, Samsung Electronics drops 1.95% and TSMC loses 1.45%. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 31, 2026 01:25 ET (05:25 GMT)