Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratio falls 62%, matching prior cycle lows as ETFs rebound

Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratio approaches bear market lows

A chart shared by Rand Group, a research and analytics firm focused on macro trends, illustrated the significant downturn in the BTC/Nasdaq ratio. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s performance to that of the technology-heavy equity index, has now declined 62.2% from its peak level.

Historically, the ratio experienced even deeper pullbacks, with drops of 75.7% in 2018 and 68.5% during the 2021-2022 cycle. The current decline is slightly smaller, yet already mirrors the scale of previous market bottoms.

Bitcoin against the Nasdaq has collapsed for the third time in eight years, following 76% in 2018 and 68% in 2022. Both previous episodes marked the launchpad for significant price recoveries.

The 62.2% contraction was highlighted by The DeFi Report on August 5, with analyst Michael Nadeau stating it was approximately 90% as severe as the major drawdown in the previous cycle. This figure represents a snapshot from early August, ahead of a notable market recovery later that month.

It is important to clarify that the BTC/Nasdaq ratio reflects relative performance, not Bitcoin’s absolute price movement. For context, Wells Fargo Investment Institute estimated that Bitcoin’s price fell around 83% between its December 2017 high and December 2018 low, and about 77% between November 2021 and November 2022.

In contrast, the ratio tracks the competitive trajectory between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq rather than just price drops. Earlier this year, the index saw a strong shift in favor of technology equities.

Mini dictionary: BTC/Nasdaq ratio, a measure comparing Bitcoin returns to the Nasdaq index, is used by analysts to gauge how the leading cryptocurrency performs relative to major technology stocks during market cycles.

Market divergence and recovery driven by ETFs

NYDIG, a digital asset investment firm, reported that Bitcoin dropped 13.4% in the second quarter, while the Nasdaq 100 jumped 27.7%. By July, Bitcoin was down 32.9% for the year. NYDIG attributed this divergence to reduced structural demand, tighter liquidity, and concerns about corporate digital-asset sales.

After June, market dynamics shifted rapidly. Bitcoin recovered from about $58,500 at the end of June and surpassed $80,000 in August, reducing the performance gap between the digital asset and the stock index.

Additionally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $1.92 billion in inflows between August 17 and 21, marking their strongest weekly performance since October 2025 and helping fuel the rally.

The DeFi Report observed that Michael Nadeau’s crypto outlook turned more optimistic after Bitcoin’s strong August recovery, with prices approaching $78,200 by the end of that month.

Macro policy and uncertainty remain

Despite the rebound, broader macroeconomic factors continued to shape market sentiment. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at the Jackson Hole symposium raised expectations for tighter monetary policy amid persistent inflation.

On August 30, the Nasdaq closed down 0.52%, while Bitcoin fell over 3%. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September increased from around 35% to over 55%.

The historical chart offers an important frame of reference. While Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to the Nasdaq has returned to areas seen at prior bear-market lows, analysts warned that the 62.2% ratio drop alone does not confirm a sustained price floor.

Sustained outperformance, continued ETF inflows and improved liquidity would give stronger evidence of a lasting trend reversal than the ratio comparison alone.