Nvidia vs. AMD: The Charts Point to a Clear Winner -- Barrons.com

By Doug Busch

Software has turned the tables on semiconductors, with the latter group largely dormant since late June.

The iShares Expanded-Tech Software Sector ETF broke above its $106.85 cup-with-handle pivot Thursday, while 28 large-cap stocks in the group have gained more than 20% over the past month. Could Nvidia's earnings-related move Thursday, when the stock surged 9% in its largest daily gain since April 9, 2025, be just the catalyst the semiconductor group needs to get going again?

That may be a tall order.

Compared with software, just one semiconductor name, Marvell Technology, has gained more than 20% over the past month, and that stock was reeling after Thursday's close, falling 7% on a soft earnings reaction.

Overall, software remains firmly in the driver's seat, with the IGV trading just 7% below its most recent 52-week high, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF sits more than twice as far below its peak. If the chips are going to rally, they'll need help from some of the megacap names.

That makes it worth taking a closer look at two of the biggest players: Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices.

The two stocks have taken very different paths in 2026. AMD has gained 122% year to date, while NVDA has risen 22%. Yet over the past four months, AMD has largely traded sideways and has not managed a weekly winning streak longer than two weeks. It now sits 18% below its 52-week high, while NVDA is just 4% from its annual peak.

On such a strong day for NVDA, one that you might have expected to embolden the entire semiconductor space, AMD still fell 1%. These reasons are part of why I prefer NVDA over AMD, so let's take a look at the technical picture of both stocks to explain why.

Nvidia, the world's largest company, began outperforming rival AMD in early July, as seen on the ratio chart, well before Thursday's big earnings-related gain. Over the past month, NVDA has advanced 16%, while AMD has fallen 3%. The stock has now set up a $228.02 double-bottom-with-handle pivot.

Thursday's gap higher also completed a bullish island reversal, just days after the 2% gap lower on Aug. 18, which came in the middle of a seven-session losing streak.

Interestingly, a prior double-bottom base began with a bearish island reversal, completed with a 4% gap lower on Nov. 4, 2025. The lows of that base were marked by a bullish morning star completed on March 31, when the stock jumped 6%.

The April 15 breakout above the $197.73 pivot was successfully retested with a touch of the 200-day simple moving average on June 29, providing further confirmation of the longer-term uptrend. The stock could reach $270 by year-end, representing an 18% gain from current levels. Remain bullish above $205.

Nvidia was trading around $218 Friday.

Advanced Micro Devices enjoyed a very powerful April and May on the ratio chart against the SMH, but since the start of June the stock has begun to resemble a bearish rounded-top pattern.

Still, give AMD credit for a strong move following its breakout above the $267.06 double-bottom trigger on April 16, when it jumped 8% on twice its average daily volume. The peaks in the base were marked by dojis on Oct. 28-29 and again on Jan. 23.

Since the middle of May, however, the stock has been unable to break above the sideways consolidation, which came close to touching the very round $600 level. In the process, AMD has now carved out a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The stock has traded below its 50-day simple moving average for the past month, and the line is now sloping lower.

A move below the rough $450 neckline could see this stock test the 200-day SMA sometime in September near $375 as the line catches up in price, representing a 21% decline from current prices.

Advanced Micro Devices was trading around $470 Friday.

Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle. His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 28, 2026 13:55 ET (17:55 GMT)