US Stock Market Preview | Major Index Futures Mixed; Waller's Jackson Hole Debut Tonight; Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) Plunges After Earnings

Pre-market Market Movements

1. On August 28 (Friday), before the U.S. market opened, the three major U.S. stock index futures showed mixed results. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.10%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.03%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.34%.

2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.54%, the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.14%, France's CAC40 index up 0.96%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.68%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 0.73%, at $82.92 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 0.59%, at $88.00 per barrel.

Market News

Wosh makes debut at Jackson Hole, market focuses on signals regarding interest rates and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Wosh will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting at 22:00 Beijing time, with the market paying attention to his statements on Fed reform and the direction of monetary policy. Since taking office, he has not released clear short-term interest rate guidance. Wosh is known for his hawkish stance, dedicated to bringing inflation down to the 2% target, but the concrete path remains unclear. Long-term borrowing costs have risen to their highest level in nearly twenty years, and investors are eagerly awaiting policy clues from this speech.

Japan spends nearly $100 billion in a single month to intervene in FX market, record-breaking scale. According to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, in the four weeks ending August 26, the Japanese government injected approximately $96.4 billion (about 15.4 trillion yen) into the foreign exchange market, marking the highest one-month intervention scale on record, after the yen once fell to its lowest level in forty years. The intervention received clear U.S. support, with the two countries conducting coordinated intervention on July 31. Japan's finance minister and the U.S. Treasury Secretary jointly confirmed the action and stated they would not hesitate to step in again if necessary. Although U.S. participation was not included in the Japanese data, its symbolic significance greatly strengthened the deterrent effect.

Goldman Sachs: Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to about two-thirds of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs stated that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-conflict levels. Goldman analysts Daan Struyven and others noted that, driven by increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the region's total crude and oil products exports have risen to 15-16 million barrels per day, still 7-8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels but far above the March low of 5-6 million barrels. Oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz alone may be close to U.S. officials' estimates of 8-10 million barrels per day. Goldman Sachs added: "In a scenario of continuous supply disruptions, we still believe that there is greater upside for European natural gas prices and forward refined oil product prices than for crude oil."

U.S. plans to promote growth consensus and increase pressure on Iran at G20 meeting; Besent to chair finance ministers’ meeting. A senior official from the U.S. Treasury Department stated that the Trump administration aims to advance consensus among major economies on promoting economic growth, reducing global imbalances, and addressing sovereign debt challenges at the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meeting next week. The U.S. will also urge members to cut off Iran’s economic lifelines, further ratcheting up pressure on Tehran. Treasury Secretary Besent will preside over the G20 finance meeting next Monday and Tuesday in Asheville, North Carolina. The U.S. previously avoided the G20 process led by South Africa last year; this return marks Washington’s intent to retake the agenda-setting lead at this multilateral economic platform.

U.S. reportedly in talks with Venezuela for oil field stakes, possibly acquiring 100-year leases. According to sources, the U.S. is negotiating with Venezuela over large stakes in the country's oil fields, and one discussed option is acquiring 100-year leases for several fields. If successful, this would further expand the Trump administration’s influence over Venezuela’s post-Maduro government and its vast energy reserves. Both the White House and Venezuelan government have declined to comment. Negotiations are ongoing, and terms may change. Previous reports indicated that the U.S. was discussing oil investments with Venezuela’s interim government.

SoftBank seeks $10 billion loan to refinance OpenAI investment. Sources say SoftBank is seeking a $10 billion loan to obtain additional funds to refinance the debt used for its investment in U.S. tech giant OpenAI. The two-year loan reportedly carries a spread about 275 basis points above the benchmark secured overnight financing rate (SOFR). Some of the funds may be used to pay down a $40 billion bridge loan SoftBank obtained earlier this year for its OpenAI investment.

Anthropic may release prospectus as soon as ten days later, IPO enters final sprint. Sources indicate that Anthropic plans to release its IPO prospectus after U.S. Labor Day (September 7) and could go public in the U.S. in late September or early October. Existing shareholders will be allowed to sell shares at the IPO, with some lock-up periods possibly exceeding 180 days, reducing post-listing sell pressure. It's unclear how many new shares versus existing shareholder shares will be sold. Reports say Anthropic hopes to raise at least $130 billion for compute expansion, surpassing the $86 billion raised by SpaceX when it listed in June.

Stock News

Rumor: Nvidia (NVDA.US) suspends some AI cloud revenue-sharing agreements involving $36 billion; Nvidia spokesperson refutes the claim. Sources say Nvidia has suspended credit support for some AI cloud service provider revenue-sharing deals, a plan only launched in July. The agreement guarantees rent for GPU computing power in exchange for 50% of excess revenue, involving $36 billion in commitments. Some Nvidia employees worry that the plan could trigger antitrust scrutiny. Nvidia, however, states the model remains in effect.

Zuckerberg complains, but Meta (META.US) still pays hundreds of millions a month to Anthropic. Sources say Meta's internal assessment this year placed annual spending on Anthropic models as high as $10 billion. Meta cut back some purchases this summer but continues to spend hundreds of millions of dollars monthly on Anthropic tools. Both Meta and Anthropic declined to comment. Earlier this month, Zuckerberg published a post criticizing top AI labs for "doomsday" narratives concentrating power, without naming Anthropic. However, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has been one of the most vocal advocates of "AI risk theory," and the article is widely seen as a reference to him.

The $53 billion "digital payments acquisition of the century" falls through! PayPal (PYPL.US) plunges over 15% premarket. Sources state that the consortium formed by private equity firm Advent International and Stripe has officially abandoned its bid to acquire PayPal, triggering a premarket plunge of about 16% in PayPal's stock. The consortium's offer of $60.50 per share, totaling about $53 billion, was rejected by PayPal’s board on valuation grounds; compared to PayPal’s peak market cap of $360 billion during the 2021 global pandemic online payments boom, the offer was only a fraction of its historical high.

Musk claims SpaceX (SPCX.US) revenue may hit $3.5 trillion by 2033. A user on X shared a Morgan Stanley investor report calling SpaceX "very attractively valued" and suggesting investors underestimate Starship's scale. The report added SpaceX could conduct 5,800 Starship launches annually at eight sites by 2040, possibly reaching $3.5 trillion in revenue. Mach 33 CEO Aaron Burnett quoted the post, stating Morgan Stanley's estimate uses barely half of the company's stated goals and is ten years behind SpaceX’s own timeline. Musk responded to Burnett’s post, saying: "By my most optimistic estimate, about $3.5 trillion in revenue could be achieved around 2033, for your reference."

AI cloud revenue surge can't mask growing pains; IREN (IREN.US) Q4 loss widens unexpectedly. IREN's fiscal Q4 revenue was $137.2 million, missing expectations, while net loss widened to $684 million, far worse than anticipated. AI cloud service revenue rose quarter-over-quarter to $70.5 million, up roughly seven-fold year-on-year; but bitcoin mining income declined, and employee costs plus platform investment weighed on EBITDA. The CEO stated that 2026 capacity is nearly sold out and that the first liquid-cooled GPU project has been delivered to Microsoft.

Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) falls over 8% premarket, market concerned about timing of AI orders realization. Marvell's fiscal 2026 Q2 revenue was $2.74 billion with EPS of $0.94, both beating expectations, and Q3 guidance was also better than forecast. Despite reaching an AI chip partnership with Google, long-term revenue guidance was not meaningfully raised, with Google revenue scaling only expected for fiscal 2029, disappointing the market. Shares were down over 8% premarket as of press time.

Autodesk (ADSK.US) Q2 beats estimates, but acquisition drags on profit outlook, stock falls. Autodesk reported Q2 revenue of $2.05 billion and EPS of $3.30, both above consensus. Building and manufacturing businesses drove a 16% revenue increase. However, Q3 profit guidance fell far short of expectations, and integration costs from the $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition hurt profit margins, sparking dual concerns over AI’s disruption of traditional software and short-term profit pressures. Shares fell over 4% premarket.

Workday (WDAY.US) Q2 mixed results; Q3 subscription backlog guidance misses expectations, testing rebound momentum. Workday Q2 revenue was $2.65 billion and adjusted EPS was $2.75, both exceeding estimates. However, Q3 subscription backlog guidance was just $27.4 billion, well below the expected $28.6 billion, causing concerns. The company said AI contributed over 25% of new annual contract value and announced a $4 billion buyback plan, as well as expanded partnerships with AWS and Google Cloud.

Key Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing Time 22:00: U.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Index, U.S. 2026 nonfarm employment benchmark annual change (pre-adjustment), and Federal Reserve Chair Wosh’s first speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (the speech may last about an hour until around 23:00).

Beijing Time 01:00 the following day: U.S. total nationwide rig count for the week ending August 28.