Rubber market shows mixed performance, with divergence hidden in forward contracts

(1) According to the spot seller quotations released by the Malaysian Rubber Board on August 27, the SMR CV grade was quoted at around 1,165 sen per kilogram, SMR L grade at around 1,155 sen per kilogram, and SMR 5, GP, 10, and 20 grades ranged between 960 and 980 sen per kilogram, showing clear price differences among the various grades. (2) In Thailand, the RSS3 grade for September shipment was quoted at around 91.91 Thai baht per kilogram, STR20 grade at around 80.68 Thai baht, and the bulk price for 60% concentrated latex was about 58.21 Thai baht, reflecting supply and demand differences between various product categories. (3) On the Singapore Exchange, the near-month TSR20 rubber futures contract closed at about 236 cents per kilogram, a slight increase of 0.4% from the previous day, but the October contract fell slightly by 0.1%, indicating some divergence in the market’s short-term direction. (4) Prices for distant-month contracts fluctuated narrowly around 229 cents, with rises and falls within 0.3%, and positions were most concentrated in the November contract, showing that participants were mainly focused on this contract. (5) For RSS3 futures contracts, quotations for each term were generally flat, the price spread between the near and distant month contracts narrowed, and the forward curve tended to flatten, suggesting a lack of clear long-term price expectations in the market. (6) The current rubber market is being influenced by weather conditions in producing regions, inventory levels, and concerns over demand triggered by Trump’s tariff statements, resulting in cautious short-term sentiment. Moving forward, attention should be paid to tapping progress in main producing regions and changes in downstream tire export orders.