Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0523 GMT - Markets will likely slightly increase their expectations of an interest-rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September, Syz Group's Reto Cueni says in a note. Syz Group, however, still expects a majority to forecast no rate hike for now, the chief economist says, adding that Syz Group doesn't expect a hike now either. "We stick for the moment to our outlook of no further Fed rate hike in the second half [of the year]," he says. Money markets assign a 65% probability of unchanged interest rates at the Fed's September meeting, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0515 GMT - The U.S. Treasury is expected to be more interventionist, pursuing incremental adjustments rather than dramatic changes to debt management, following the announcement of doubling long-end securities buybacks, Deutsche Bank strategists say in a note. "We also expect increased communication outside the quarterly refunding process, with Treasury using active signaling more extensively as a policy tool," they say. Treasury could leverage flexibility in the language of last week's announcement to increase long-end operation sizes beyond the initial suggested minimum of $4 billion, the strategists say. "Long-end buybacks regularly attract as much as $20 billion in offers, giving Treasury substantial scope to increase operation size in the near term." Treasury could also maintain operational flexibility by releasing its updated buyback schedule without specifying long-end operation sizes, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0506 GMT - Given Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's well-known scepticism toward forward guidance, investors should likely temper expectations of any meaningful hints on the future policy path, Impax Asset Management's Ross Pamphilon says in a note. "Instead, I would expect greater emphasis on inflation, productivity and labour market dynamics," the CIO of fixed income says. Warsh will need, however, to strike a careful balance, and this speech at Jackson Hole represents an early test of his communication strategy and credibility, Pamphilon says. "A message perceived as too dovish could trigger further [Treasury] curve steepening, weigh on the dollar and support gold. Conversely, a more hawkish tone risks prompting markets to price a September rate hike." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0502 GMT - Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's aversion to forward guidance is well known, and with another inflation report due before the September FOMC decision, "the timing isn't right for him to take a strident view," Russell Investments' Paul Eitelman says in a note. "We don't expect fireworks from Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this Friday," the global chief investment strategist says, referring to Warsh's speeach on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole meeting. Warsh can talk about the task forces and big questions like AI, but the work of the task forces is incomplete, and the big questions are trodden ground for markets, Eitelman says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 27, 2026 01:23 ET (05:23 GMT)