Texas gasoline pricing for tomorrow suggests limited upside; $3.63 is the key threshold, with less than a 30% probability of breaking through

(1) Predictive market pricing for Texas's average regular gasoline price tomorrow indicates that the probability of prices breaking above $3.63 is only about 26%, suggesting that traders generally view this level as a significant short-term resistance area. (2) The probability of prices touching above $3.6250 is about 88%, but for every additional half-cent increase, the probability declines in steps—dropping to about 9% above $3.64, and even lower at about 2% above $3.65—indicating extremely weak willingness to chase higher prices at elevated levels. (3) On the support side, the probability of prices holding above $3.6050 is as high as about 99%, above $3.61 is about 94%, and above $3.62 about 74%, showing strong psychological and position support in the $3.60–$3.62 range. (4) Previously, oil prices were under pressure and moved lower due to US plans for sanctions against Iran, but Texas gasoline pricing did not drop significantly alongside crude oil; instead, it has recently remained relatively strong within a choppy range, reflecting regional supply-demand or refinery operation factors providing independent support to terminal prices. (5) If tomorrow’s actual price falls below $3.63, the market will confirm the effectiveness of overhead resistance. Subsequent attention will focus on whether the trend in crude oil can break the current stalemate, and whether changes in regional inventory and refinery operating rates alter pricing expectations.