Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1102 ET - Current elevated government bond yields create opportunities for "larger and more durable income" through higher coupons and yields, BlackRock Investment Institute strategists say in a note. "Investors can now secure chunky income without necessarily reaching far out the yield curve or credit risk spectrum." Nonetheless, investors need to select carefully the opportunities that provide adequate compensation for risk, the strategists say. "We are more positive on shorter-term bonds where higher yields offer attractive income with less duration risk." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1056 ET - Consumers are still benefiting from income growth that's outpacing inflation, though an inflection point could be approaching, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Roach says in a note. Personal incomes grew 0.4% in July, twice as fast as the 0.2% growth in prices paid by consumers for goods and services, Roach says. If retailers use tariff rebates to cut prices, core inflation could come down, he says. Services inflation remains elevated, but there are signs of improvement, Roach says. Still, the balance of risks still tilts toward inflation for policymakers, he says. Any easing in geopolitical tensions would be a welcome relief for investors, Roach says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1055 ET - The core PCE inflation index came in at 0.24552%, a level that will likely keep officials cautious about the inflation outlook. "The topline narrowly missed a 0.3% increase which will keep the hawks on the FOMC squawking and discussion of a rate hike in play going forward," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. The BEA rounded the core PCE reading to 0.2%, but some market participants use data feeds that extend several digits to the right of the decimal point-making it unlikely the agency's rounding convention will impact their view of how hot the number was. Treasury yields ticked up after the report was released. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1046 ET - More than two-thirds--67.2%--of views to new-construction listings in 2Q came from shoppers located in a different metro area than the home for sale, according to Realtor.com. That share exceeds the 65.4% of views to existing-home listings coming from outside the listing metro, underscoring the outsized role of long-distance shoppers in new-home demand. The strongest cross-metro interest is concentrated in Southern markets where new construction is often priced at or below the national median. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida led the country, with 83.1% of views to new-construction listings originating outside the metro area. (chris.wack@wsj.com)

1018 ET - Big Bitcoin holders aren't uniformly buying in on the cryptocurrency's recent rally, XS.com's Simon-Peter Massabni says in a note. The latest rise has been propped up by spot Bitcoin ETF purchases and renewed short-position liquidations, he says. Accumulation from Bitcoin whales meanwhile has been mixed, with some adding to their position and others selling, raising questions about the rally's strength, Massabni says. Whales with more than 10,000 bitcoin increased their holdings collectively by nearly 16,000 bitcoin on Tuesday, but smaller whales, holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoin, sold more than 20,000 bitcoin in that span, he says. The rally will need stronger accumulation from all of the whales to support a sustained advance, Massabni says. The cryptocurrency is currently trading sideways near $78,000. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1011 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds rise after the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index data. U.S. annual core PCE inflation rose 3.3% in July, unchanged from June, while the headline annual PCE index was 3.7%. The PCE inflation data was stronger than the latest U.S. CPI inflation data, adding uncertainty around the interest-rate outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, Carson Group's Sonu Varghese says in a note. The data show a U.S. inflation problem still lingers, he says. Ten-year gilt yields rise 2.4 basis points on the day to 5.021%, following the data release, turning higher after earlier falling to a 13-day low of 4.979%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0954 ET - While July core PCE rose in the latest inflation reading, it won't be enough to convince the Fed that they need to hike as soon as September, Capital Economics says. However, with the annual core rate at 3.3% and Capital's upbeat forecast for growth and the labor market, it may be a matter of when, not if, rates are raised. The gain in core PCE reflected a 0.15% month-over-month rise in core goods and a 0.27% rise in services prices. The latter was attributable to the portfolio management component, the economists say. That component should be revised lower in September when the BEA incorporates its methodology changes for measuring these prices.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0938 ET - Canadian policymakers have an opportunity to propel the country into an investment supercycle lasting a decade or more, analysis by Toronto-Dominion Bank says. Economists Beata Caranci and Derek Burleton argue recent the escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war makes the case more compelling for Canada to seize the opportunity in front of it. They note there are more than C$1 trillion in announced projects already approved or on the table through 2035 and beyond, which because of varying timetables can create rotating waves of investment. They add this reflects only publicly announced projects, and there is scope for upside that could mean C$1.5 trillion-C$1.7 trillion could materialize over a longer term. Getting there will need bold policy action improving competitiveness on tax and regulations, they say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0923 ET - Monthly PCE inflation readings worsened in July, likely supporting expectations of a Fed hike. Prices increase 0.2%, after falling 0.1% in June, while the core reading accelerates to 0.2% from 0.1%. "The number of dissenters at the next meeting may grow because the month-over-month readings...are getting worse," Northlight's Chris Zaccarelli writes. However, "we believe enough of the FOMC will want to wait to see more data before making a decision to raise rates next month." Zaccarelli adds that annual readings steady at 3.7% and 3.3% (core) could give the Fed more time to stay on hold. Markets price 60% odds of a hold in September, according to CME. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0917 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds could remain high through the remainder of 2026 due to U.K.-specific fiscal concerns, economists from Pantheon Macroeconomics say in a note. The markets could be underpricing the risk of renewed fiscal worries in the lead up to the budget statement on Oct. 28, the economists say. Gilt yields are expected to remain around current levels in the coming months, even if global bond yields fall, they say. Ten-year gilt yields rise 1.1 basis points to last trade at 5.008%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0908 ET - Some Fed officials highlighted resilient consumer spending as a reason to remain cautious about the inflation outlook; however, the July PCE report shows consumer spending gained 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.3% in June. For officials comfortable holding rates steady to see how inflation plays out---this may strengthen the case to stay on hold in September. Month-over-month, PCE rose by 0.2%, just above expectations for a 0.1% increase.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0855 ET - Treasury yields rise as July durable goods orders rise 1.1%, accelerating from June's 0.5% revised pace and beating WSJ consensus of 0.5%. The second estimate of 2Q GDP growth is unchanged at 1.5% annualized rate. July 12-month PCE inflation stays at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, repeating June's pace. The indicators support bets on a Fed hike, but much depends on what Chairman Warsh will say at Jackson Hole Friday. Meanwhile, oil is down 3% amid rising hopes of a Hormuz reopening. The 10-year yield rises to 4.653% from 4.639% before the data, and the two-year increases to 4.216% from 4.176%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 26, 2026 11:02 ET (15:02 GMT)