Analyst Issues Critical XRP Price Warning to Holders

XRP is facing a critical technical test after falling below a weekly Gaussian Channel, according to crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto.

In a video posted on X, Steph described the current setup as one of the biggest traps he has seen for XRP and the broader crypto market, while questioning whether the cryptocurrency could experience another major decline before beginning a recovery.

The analyst compared the current market structure with XRP’s price action during the 2022 bear market. He said the comparison could provide an important indication of what may happen next as XRP attempts to recover after its latest decline.

Steph Compares 2026 Price Action With 2022

Steph focused his analysis on XRP’s weekly Gaussian Channel, a technical indicator he uses to assess broader market momentum. According to his explanation, XRP trading above the channel indicates strong bullish momentum, while trading below it signals a strong bearish trend.

He pointed to XRP’s 2022 price action, when the cryptocurrency broke below the Gaussian Channel during the bear market. Steph noted that XRP then collapsed significantly before forming what he described as a double bottom. That structure eventually preceded a larger move higher.

The analyst believes XRP is showing a similar setup in 2026. He highlighted January as the period when XRP first fell below the Gaussian Channel following its major bull run. According to Steph, XRP is now testing the channel from below for the first time since that breakdown.

He previously expected XRP to retest the area between $1.50 and $1.60, and said that move has now occurred. However, he questioned whether the current retest could lead to another decline before XRP eventually attempts a recovery.

$1.30 Emerges as Steph’s Key Support Level

Steph shifted to the daily timeframe to explain where he believes XRP could find significant support if the current correction continues. He identified the area around $1.30 as an important level, noting that the range provided substantial support between February and May 2026.

XRP eventually broke that range below several days ago and was trading around $1.47 at the time of Steph’s analysis. Despite the breakdown, he maintained that the $1.30 region remains a level to monitor closely.

Steph pointed to several previous instances where the area acted as support. He said a deeper correction toward $1.30 could therefore present what he considers an attractive entry area for investors looking for a lower price.

At the same time, he acknowledged that XRP remains in a local uptrend and could reverse higher at any point. His analysis therefore leaves open the possibility of either a continued recovery or another decline toward the $1.30 region.

XRP Faces a Decisive Technical Test

Steph’s analysis ultimately centers on whether XRP can reclaim the weekly Gaussian Channel or whether the current retest fails and leads to another move lower. His comparison with 2022 suggests he is watching for a potential repeat of the earlier breakdown-and-recovery pattern.

For now, he considers the $1.30 area particularly important if XRP records another leg lower. A sustained move above the Gaussian Channel, however, could change the technical outlook and provide evidence that the current weakness is temporary.