Without spot prices, how does Anthropic trade? Entropy wants to use order books to price private assets

Author: Alea Research

Translated by: TechFlow

TechFlow Guide: Private companies never disclose continuous market prices, with valuations locked into each financing round. Entropy, as a HIP-3 deployer, has launched on Hyperliquid, relying on a $14 million financing led by Ribbit Capital and the staking of 40 million HYPE. Its flagship market directly benchmarks against Anthropic's implied valuation. The core bet is: as long as there is sufficiently "credible" bilateral depth in the order book, the market itself can set continuous prices for illiquid assets; once depth collapses, the oracle will revert to outdated private placement data. In this article, we break down how Entropy prices "non-tradable assets," when its oracle chooses to trust its own market, and what happens when no spot settlement is ultimately available.

What is Entropy

Entropy is a HIP-3 deployer, offering perpetual contracts covering global stocks, indices, commodities, and pre-IPO companies on Hyperliquid (Entropy’s trading pair symbol is “io”). HIP-3 allows Entropy to customize assets, risk parameters, oracles, and front-end, while directly reusing Hyperliquid’s matching engine, settlement infrastructure, and existing trading flows.

Currently, there is no public equity count available to calculate per-share prices, and private market pricing from secondary transfers, tender offers, and fund valuations occurs too infrequently to serve as a real-time reference. Entropy solves the first problem by “directly reporting market capitalization”; the second problem requires its own market to become part of the pricing process.

Pricing Targets Without Spot Prices

Entropy mixes the midpoint of its order book with aggregated external private market data. The internal price is a 5-minute EMA, but its influence is limited by the “executable bilateral depth within 200bps of the midpoint,” with order book liquidity discounted according to actual execution probability.

When the order book is deep, Entropy can allow its own market to have up to 95% oracle weight; when liquidity disappears, external references take over. Therefore, traders cannot “cheaply” push the oracle with an empty book—as depth declines, the oracle's response to the book weakens. Withdrawn liquidity loses influence faster than newly posted liquidity, which limits the value of using spoofing to manipulate the market.

This means that the pricing of perpetual contracts largely depends on how “credible” the liquidity is. This also explains why the funding rate multiplier is relatively low: anchoring the contract aggressively to an external reference punishes “information discovered by traders before it’s reflected in the external reference.”

Anthropic’s Pre-IPO Market

If Anthropic remains a private company at expiry, ANTH will settle at the 30-day TWAP of its own mark price. In other words, the contract may not necessarily converge to Anthropic's ultimate “fundamental” or IPO valuation, but will settle at the “consensus generated by the market itself.”

Deeper liquidity gives the market more authority on its oracle; credible pricing attracts more flow; more flow creates the depth the oracle needs to be credible. If this cycle holds, Entropy can turn private valuations into continuously updated market prices; if not, the oracle reverts to old private market data.

Hyperliquid’s broader pre-IPO markets have already shown that these contracts can sometimes closely converge to the eventual public price. For example, its Cerebeas (CBRS) market closed within 1.3% of the company’s $350 Nasdaq opening price. Entropy is now betting that the same market structure can function even before there is any external IPO price to anchor to.