Bitget UEX Daily | US-Iran Talks May Restart, Oil Falls Nearly 2%; Korean DRAM Export Prices Surge 401% YoY; Nvidia Ends Seven-Day Losing Streak Ahead of Earnings (August 26, 2026)

I. Hot News Highlights

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Walsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Approaches; Probability of Holding Rates Steady in September Around 60%

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh will speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28. Markets continue to seek his views on inflation and fiscal issues.
• CME data show the probability of holding rates unchanged in September at approximately 60.4%, with a cumulative 25 bp hike probability of about 39.6%.
• Richmond Fed President Barkin and other officials are also scheduled to speak this week.
  Market Impact: The speech and core PCE data together form the near-term core of policy pricing and may influence term premiums and risk-asset performance.

International Commodities

Russian Media Reports US-Iran to Restart Talks; Crude Oil Falls Sharply

• Iran and Oman are discussing the establishment of a temporary Hormuz navigation corridor and mine-clearance plans, with permanent route discussions targeted within 30–60 days.
• Pakistani and Iranian security sources indicate the US and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms, including free navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, with an announcement and formal talks expected in the coming days.
• Secretary of State Rubio stated there are currently no plans for a new round of military strikes on Iran, shifting instead to naval blockade and Treasury sanctions; President Trump said all mines in international waters have been cleared.
  Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums have rapidly receded. WTI crude fell nearly 2% and Brent declined in tandem, temporarily easing sticky-inflation concerns and supporting risk assets.

Macroeconomic Policy

Canada Imposes Retaliatory Tariffs on US Goods; US Considers Further Measures

• Starting September 8, Canada will impose 15%–50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion of US goods, with metals rising to as high as 50%, while providing C$7.5 billion in support funding.
• The US government is discussing additional punitive measures against Canada, potentially escalating trade friction.
  Market Impact: North American trade tensions are intensifying and may affect related supply chains and market sentiment, though the impact is partially offset in the near term by the US-Iran de-escalation narrative.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approx. $4,650/oz, -0.25%
• Spot Silver: Approx. $68.6/oz, +0.05%
• WTI Crude: Approx. $80.47/bbl, -2.12%
• Brent Crude: Approx. $83.4/bbl, -2.12%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approx. 98.93, +0.02%

Driver Analysis: Expectations of restarted US-Iran talks significantly reduced Hormuz risk premiums, making the sharp oil decline the dominant factor. Gold oscillated between falling oil prices and residual safe-haven demand, while silver was influenced more by industrial attributes. Institutional views hold that near-term commodities are driven primarily by geopolitical de-escalation; lower oil prices help ease inflation and rate-hike concerns, creating a linkage of geopolitical cooling → oil decline → reduced inflation worries → support for risk assets.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approx. $78,770, -1.17%
• ETH: Approx. $2,475, -1.37%
• Crypto Total Market Cap: $2.73 trillion, -1.9%
• Market Liquidations: 24-hour total liquidations $624 million, of which long liquidations $322 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC currently around $78,800. Significant short-liquidation pressure is clustered in the $80,000–$81,500 zone above; a break above $80,000 could trigger a noticeable short squeeze. Dense long-liquidation levels also exist in the $77,000–$79,000 zone below; a loss of support near $78,000 could accelerate long liquidations.

• Spot ETF Net Flows: Recent net inflows continue; yesterday’s net inflow $338 million, current 24-hour net inflow $29.9 million.

Driver Analysis: US-Iran de-escalation and lower oil prices supported risk appetite, allowing the crypto market to consolidate at elevated levels. BTC briefly tested the $80,000 level, with ETH moving in relative tandem. Institutional consensus points to short-term support from liquidity and policy narratives; attention remains on the transmission of core PCE and the Jackson Hole speech.

US Equity Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 53,577.40, +0.30%
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,677.28, +0.32%
• Nasdaq: Closed at 26,151.30, +0.66%, driven by technology and semiconductor rebound

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $213.05, +2.19% (ended seven-day losing streak)
• AAPL: $309.90, -0.14%
• MSFT: $491.71, +0.90%
• GOOGL: Approx. $347, slightly lower
• AMZN: $261.06, -0.39%
• META: $570.05, +1.97%
• TSLA: $350.25, +0.37%

Performance Summary & Driver Analysis: All three major indexes rose, with the technology sector rebounding after Nvidia ended its losing streak. Storage and optical-communication sectors advanced broadly, with AMD up nearly 5%. Capital flowed back into growth stocks on US-Iran de-escalation and lower yields, though individual-stock divergence persisted and consumer-tech names remained relatively stable.

Sector Movers Observation

Semiconductors / Storage – Collective Rebound

• Representative stocks: AMD up nearly 5%; Micron Technology and SK Hynix up more than 2%; Seagate Technology and Western Digital up more than 3%.
• Drivers: The 401% year-over-year surge in Korean DRAM export prices reinforced the tight supply-demand narrative, amplified by Nvidia’s rebound.

Optical Communication – Strong Gains

• Representative stocks: Lumentum up nearly 7%; Applied Optoelectronics up more than 5%; Coherent and Ciena up more than 4%.
• Drivers: Technical recovery after the prior sharp correction combined with ongoing AI infrastructure demand expectations.

Crypto-Related Stocks – Strong Performance

• Representative stocks: Robinhood up more than 8%; Circle and Coinbase up more than 4%; Strategy up more than 3%.
• Drivers: Bitcoin’s elevated levels and improved risk appetite.

III. In-Depth US Equity Analysis

1. Nvidia (NVDA) – Ends Seven-Day Losing Streak Ahead of Earnings

Event Overview: Nvidia rose more than 2%, ending a seven-session losing streak. The company simultaneously launched the Jetson Orin Nano 2 robotics computer, featuring 78 TOPS of AI compute, 8 GB of memory and an eight-core Arm CPU. Inference performance is doubled versus the prior generation while power consumption in 15-watt mode is reduced by 40%. Targeted at robots, drones and edge AI, general availability is expected in the first half of 2027. Q2 earnings will be released after the close, with focus on data-center revenue, gross margin and forward guidance.
Market Interpretation: Institutions view the rebound as reflecting both sentiment repair and positioning ahead of earnings. The Jetson product strengthens the edge-AI and physical-AI roadmap, while earlier server price increases help pass through memory costs. Analysts are watching whether customer capital expenditure is slowing and whether competition is eroding share; guidance will be the key near-term pricing catalyst.
Investment Implications: The medium-term thesis remains centered on AI infrastructure and robotics demand, but close attention to tonight’s data-center growth and guidance is required.

2. AMD – Rises Nearly 5%

Event Overview: AMD advanced nearly 5%, leading the semiconductor sector. The company announced the addition of UCIe interconnect technology to its Versal adaptive SoCs, enabling low-power, high-bandwidth chiplet communication. Raymond James upgraded the stock to Strong Buy and raised its price target to $641. The Helios rack-scale AI platform is expected to begin shipping in September.
Market Interpretation: Institutions are constructive on AMD’s progress in AI server CPUs and full-rack solutions, noting improved valuation attractiveness after the prior pullback. Analysts highlight the doubling of data-center revenue year-over-year and design wins with OpenAI, Meta and others, arguing that a multi-vendor landscape favors AMD’s share gains.
Investment Implications: Suitable as a diversified AI compute allocation; monitor Helios shipment cadence and the rising contribution of data-center revenue.

3. Micron Technology (MU) – Storage Tightness Narrative Strengthens

Event Overview: Micron rose more than 2% as the storage group advanced. Korean DRAM export unit prices reached $92,183 per kilogram in August, up 401% year-over-year and approximately 12.5 times the early-2023 trough. Goldman Sachs expects the global DRAM supply shortfall to widen from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year and potentially extend into 2028; TrendForce notes that Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron will allocate 30% of DRAM wafer starts to HBM.
Market Interpretation: Institutions have raised their optimism on the memory supercycle, arguing that HBM and high-capacity server DRAM continue to absorb limited capacity and further tighten conventional DRAM supply. Analysts note significantly enhanced pricing power, while cautioning about potential cycle risks once capacity ramps after 2027.
Investment Implications: Tight supply-demand dynamics provide medium-term support; monitor subsequent contract pricing and capacity-expansion progress rather than chasing elevated levels indiscriminately.

4. Lumentum / Applied Optoelectronics – Optical Communication Recovery

Event Overview: Lumentum rose nearly 7% and Applied Optoelectronics more than 5%, with Coherent and Ciena also advancing more than 4% as the optical-communication group rebounded collectively.
Market Interpretation: Institutions regard the move as a technical recovery after the prior sharp correction, with the underlying demand for 800G/1.6T optical modules and high-speed interconnect in AI data centers remaining intact. Analysts are focused on order backlogs and capacity ramp progress; near-term elasticity is high but volatility is elevated.
Investment Implications: High-beta thematic exposure suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance; monitor industry cycle and competitive dynamics.

5. Robinhood (HOOD) – Crypto Concept Leader

Event Overview: Robinhood rose more than 8%, with Circle and Coinbase up more than 4% and Strategy up more than 3% as crypto-related stocks advanced strongly.
Market Interpretation: Bitcoin’s elevated levels and improved risk appetite directly lifted trading platforms and Bitcoin-treasury proxies. Institutions note that regulatory-clarity expectations (Clarity Act) and trading-volume elasticity are core drivers; near-term correlation with BTC price remains high.
Investment Implications: High-beta name driven by both policy and crypto prices; significant volatility requires strict position sizing and close tracking of key BTC technical levels.

IV. Market & Project Updates

1. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the GLD gold ETF and IBIT Bitcoin ETF have returned to the top-10 trading-volume list, displacing the semiconductor ETFs that dominated the summer—another signal that “debasement trades” are beginning to replace AI exuberance as investors rotate toward hard assets. Semiconductor ETFs remain active but volume has declined from summer peaks.
2. Korean DRAM August export prices surged 401% year-over-year, reinforcing expectations of tight supply extending beyond 2027.
3. According to Russian media citing Pakistani military and Iranian security sources, the United States and Iran have reached consensus on ceasefire terms that include free navigation of the Strait of Hormuz.
4. Morgan Stanley reported that off-balance-sheet AI-related commitments by the five hyperscalers plus Nvidia and Broadcom have exceeded $3.1 trillion.
5. Anthropic estimates its total addressable market at more than $30 trillion, with a potential IPO valuation around $2 trillion.
6. Apple launched the M6 and M5 Ultra chips along with new Mac mini and Mac Studio models. The M6 is Apple’s first 2-nanometer process chip, featuring a 12-core CPU, 12-core GPU and dual 16-core Neural Engines; the M5 Ultra introduces a four-die architecture with up to 36 CPU cores, 80 GPU cores, 512 GB of unified memory and 1.2 TB/s memory bandwidth.

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Key Event Preview

August 26 (Wednesday)

1. ★★★★★ U.S. releases July core PCE, personal income/spending, Q2 GDP revision and durable-goods orders.
2. ★★★★★ Nvidia (NVDA) reports after the close (focus on data-center revenue, gross margin and forward guidance).
3. ★★★ CrowdStrike and Salesforce report after the close.

August 27 (Thursday)

1. U.S. releases initial jobless claims, trade balance and wholesale inventories; Jackson Hole symposium opens.
2. ★★★ Marvell (MRVL), Ulta, Gap and others report after the close.

August 28 (Friday)

1. ★★★★★ Fed Chair Walsh delivers the keynote address at Jackson Hole (22:00 Beijing time); markets focus on inflation and policy-path remarks.
2. U.S. releases Chicago PMI, preliminary non-farm employment benchmark revision and University of Michigan final consumer sentiment.

Institutional Views

Investment-bank analysts believe expectations of restarted US-Iran talks have significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The resulting oil decline helps ease inflation concerns and support risk appetite. The sharp rise in Korean DRAM prices has reinforced the tight storage supply-demand narrative, lifting semiconductor and optical-communication sectors. Nvidia’s end to its losing streak and tonight’s earnings are the near-term focal points. The crypto market is consolidating at elevated levels. Overall strategy recommendation: monitor the core PCE outcome, Nvidia guidance and the Jackson Hole speech; remain flexible on high-valuation growth stocks while watching asset rotation following the energy pullback.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search and verified by humans for publication only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.