Chicago National Activity Index dips to -0.08 in July, signaling slow but stable growth

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago released its National Activity Index for July 2026 on August 24, showing a reading of -0.08. That is a move in the wrong direction from June’s +0.06, but it is a long way from the numbers that historically flash red on recession radar.

The index pulls data from four broad categories: production and income, employment and hours, personal consumption and housing, and sales and inventories. The threshold that economists watch most closely is a three-month moving average of -0.70 or lower. That level has historically been associated with recession-level contractions. At -0.08, the current reading sits nowhere near that danger zone.

The index has been published monthly since the late 1960s, giving it a long enough track record to be taken seriously when it speaks.

The broader economic backdrop

GDP growth forecasts for 2026 from analysts including J.P. Morgan and the Congressional Budget Office have been ranging between 1.5% and 2.2%. Policy uncertainty has been a persistent drag, and a sub-trend CFNAI reading gives the Fed some data to chew on, but one monthly print rarely moves the needle on policy decisions by itself.

The next release, covering August 2026 data, is scheduled for September 21.