The US Treasury plans to expand the scope of secondary sanctions on Iran, introducing new variables to the energy trade chain.

(1) According to informed sources, the US Department of the Treasury is expected to announce an expansion of the scope of secondary sanctions against Iran, whereby any economic activity involving specific Iranian industries may face secondary sanction risks. This move marks a renewed escalation in US pressure tactics against Iran. (2) The core change in the new sanctions framework lies in broadening the coverage of secondary sanctions. It is no longer limited to entities directly trading with Iran, but may also extend to third-party institutions providing financial, logistics, or insurance services for related trade. (3) Previously, Morgan Stanley has pointed out that the pace of supply recovery in the Middle East has slowed significantly. The US action will further intensify concerns in the market regarding shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz and the outlook for Iran's crude oil exports. (4) Since the start of this year, Iran's crude oil exports have already seen a marked reduction. If secondary sanctions are strictly enforced, the global supply gap for heavy crude oil could further widen, providing fundamental support for Brent oil prices to remain high in the fourth quarter. (5) The market is currently awaiting the official announcement from the US Department of the Treasury to assess the specific scope and execution timetable of the sanctions details. In the short term, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to remain elevated, and related shipping and insurance sectors also face mounting pressure from increased compliance costs.