Euro: Positioning supports gradual gains against US Dollar – ING

ING’s Chris Turner highlights futures data showing asset managers and leveraged funds adding Euro exposure, leaving speculators underweight. He notes recovering German IFO and Eurozone PMIs, and sees limited need for EUR/USD to drop sharply below 1.1660/70 unless risk assets suffer. ING keeps forecasts of EUR/USD at 1.17 for end-September and 1.18 for year-end under review.

Speculative underweight favours Euro upside

"Latest positioning data from the futures market in Chicago points to asset managers and leveraged funds buying euro contracts."

"The amounts are not particularly large and the data does predate last Wednesday's jump in EUR/USD, but this does serve as a reminder that speculators look quite underweight the euro. This was the same conclusion we drew when looking at the EUR/USD hedging data."

"On the calendar this week is the release of the August German IFO tomorrow. Like the Eurozone PMIs, this is expected to continue its recovery after the sharp drop witnessed in March and April."

"We do not really see the need for EUR/USD to come back sharply under support at 1.1660/70 today, but last week's break-out area would be the risk if risk assets started to suffer."

"At present, we are happy with our current forecasts for EUR/USD at 1.17 end September and 1.18 for end year - but will be reviewing those this week."