Middle East’s slower-than-expected production recovery prompts Morgan Stanley to sharply raise Brent crude oil outlook

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智通财经2026/08/24 10:56

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JPMorgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for multiple upcoming quarters in a research report released on Sunday, mainly due to a slower-than-expected resumption of Middle East supplies, which is expected to keep the crude oil market in a state of shortage in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
The bank pointed out that recently global floating storage inventories have seen one of the largest declines in recent years, and onshore inventories—including those in China—are also shrinking in sync, indicating clear signs of a tightening oil market.
JPMorgan Stanley raised its Brent price expectation for the third quarter of 2026 from the previous $75 per barrel to $90 per barrel, and further increased its fourth-quarter projection to $100 per barrel. The forecasts for the first and second quarters of 2027 were also increased to $95 and $90 per barrel respectively, representing a significant overall adjustment.
The bank stated that the core assumption for this adjustment is a much-extended timeline for a recovery in Middle East supplies, with the latest estimates suggesting this process will continue into the latter part of 2027.
At the same time, the bank noticed a rare divergence between crude oil and refined products prices: the ICE diesel contract traded near $175 per barrel, while Brent crude was around $92, creating a record-high crack spread of $75 per barrel and reflecting exceptionally high profits for refiners.
During Monday's intraday trading, oil prices at one point fell by more than $1, as some investors took profits ahead of a possible Washington announcement of additional sanctions on Iran, while in the previous two weeks oil prices had posted consecutive weekly gains and a cumulative increase of over 5%.

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Middle East’s slower-than-expected production recovery prompts Morgan Stanley to sharply raise Brent crude oil outlook

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