Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Warsh Speech at Jackson -2-

The Bank of Korea is widely expected to raise its growth forecast at its policy meeting Thursday, as analysts remain divided over whether the central bank will raise rates again following its first hike in three years in July.

"We believe the monetary policy board is split between a hold and a pre-emptive hike," Barclays economist Bum Ki Son said.

Some analysts expect the BOK to deliver a back-to-back rate hike in August, citing stronger-than-expected economic growth driven by robust semiconductor exports and above-target inflation.

Others, however, expect the BOK to pause as it assesses the impact of the July hike and the weak recovery in consumer spending, before tightening again in October or November to curb price growth.

Most analysts expect the BOK to lift its 2026 GDP growth forecast for South Korea to 3% or higher from 2.6%.

The Seoul government and the Korea Development Institute, a state-run think tank, recently raised their GDP growth forecasts for this year to 3.0% and 3.2%, respectively.

Philippines

The Philippines central bank is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% on Thursday to curb rising inflation.

Inflation reached an over three-year high in April due to the global energy price shock. It has since pulled back, but remains above Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 2%-4% target range.

Underlying pressures remain elevated, despite June and July inflation data giving some reassurance that prices have peaked, said ING economists. That said, BSP will tread cautiously as oil prices regain traction, and food inflation is still vulnerable to supply-side shocks.

Thailand

On Wednesday, it is the Bank of Thailand's turn to decide whether it will raise rates to guard against inflation risks. Economists think it is unlikely to do so, as economic growth remains weak and price-growth in check.

Consensus views project a hold that will keep the policy rate at 1.00%, with the BOT maintaining a dovish stance aimed at supporting domestic growth, said ANZ's Kausani Basak.

Thailand's economy lost momentum in the second quarter and domestic demand has come under pressure from energy prices and weaker income growth, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. That suggests the BOT will preserve an accommodative policy stance to support the still-subdued growth outlook, GS said.

Singapore

Singapore inflation figures on Monday will likely show that price growth accelerated in July as the energy shock filters through.

The city-state's consumer-price index likely gained 2.4% on year in July, up from June's 1.9% rise, according to the median estimate of six economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

CPI, which excludes private road transport and accommodation, could have risen 2.2% in July, higher than June's 1.6% increase, according to the poll.

Prices likely rose mainly due to the increase in electricity and tariffs last month, said Moody's Analytics economist Denise Cheok.

Electricity and town-gas tariffs for households are expected to rise by 17% and 7.1%, respectively, from July to September.

Any references to days are in local times.

Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 24, 2026 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT)