Moderna Is Up 350% Since Our Recommendation. Here's What to Do Next. -- Barrons.com

By Doug Busch

Moderna stock's largest one-day gain on record came after the company and partner Merck announced positive Phase 3 results for a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine.

The news on Wednesday sent the stock surging to a two-year high on massive volume, adding roughly $44 billion to Moderna's market capitalization in a single session. The 177% gain was also the largest one-day percentage increase by an S&P 500 stock in at least 25 years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

It is now higher by more than 350% since I introduced it as my chart of the week at the end of 2025.

The breakthrough also highlights a broader transformation underway across biotech, as artificial intelligence accelerates the design, personalization and clinical development of therapies at a pace that would have seemed unimaginable just a few years ago. As AI becomes increasingly embedded in drug-discovery pipelines, companies are working to shorten development timelines, reduce costs and expand the range of diseases that can be targeted with precision medicines.

We should not underestimate enormous moves like this in the biotech space. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF is up 90% over the past year, underscoring how, once a formidable price trend is established, it is often more likely to continue than reverse. The fund has now advanced in 12 of the last 13 sessions.

The 10-year monthly chart may suggest the ETF is extended, but it could actually be approaching a major cup-base breakout above the $174.89 pivot. The pattern began with a bearish shooting star in February 2021, and since the fourth quarter of 2023, the fund has not experienced more than a two-month losing streak. The lows of the cup base also produced several bullish candlesticks that offered attractive risk/reward opportunities on the long side.

Among them was a spinning top in May 2022, which occurred on the largest monthly volume of the past decade and suggested selling pressure was beginning to abate. More recently, a bullish hammer in April 2025 formed near the 50-month simple moving average and kicked off the current winning streak, with the ETF advancing in 13 of the last 16 months and gaining more than 150% during that period.

The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF was trading around $165 Thursday.

Turning to Moderna's monthly chart, notice the incredible run from a low just above $11 in August 2019 to the very round $500 level during the Covid era. The subsequent top was marked by a bearish shooting star and doji in August and September 2021, followed by bearish hanging men in October and November. That marked the beginning of a long double-bottom base.

The $170.57 trigger was taken out Wednesday during a euphoric session, although Thursday's sharp reversal has pushed the stock well below that level. A close above $170.57 by the end of August would make the breakout legitimate. The stock has also climbed above its 50-month SMA for the first time since April 2023.

The bottoming process began with two dojis and a spinning top between April and June 2025, bringing an end to a brutal eight-month losing streak. Those candles provided the first signs that selling pressure was beginning to abate and that a longer-term reversal could be taking shape.

As for what to do now, I would wait until the end of the month to see whether the stock can reclaim and close above the monthly double-bottom trigger at $170.57. The best breakouts tend to work quickly, so we want to see the stock hold near that level or begin to grind higher. Going forward, any monthly close below $115 should be treated as a stop. At that point, I would take the 278% gain and move on.

Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle. His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 20, 2026 14:36 ET (18:36 GMT)