Multiple merchant vessel attacks reported in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude jumps to a three-week high as geopolitical risk premium returns

(1) The UK maritime authority has confirmed that recently three vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by unidentified projectiles, resulting in two casualties. Among them, a crew member on a Liberia-flagged bulk carrier died on Monday. The International Dry Bulk Shipowners Association emphasized that seafarers should not become collateral victims of geopolitical conflicts.(2) Although direct hostile actions between the US and Iran have eased in recent weeks, a series of ship attacks has severely undermined market confidence. Brent crude oil futures rose by more than three percent over the past week, with prices climbing above ninety-one dollars, reaching a three-week high.(3) Iran’s chief negotiator publicly stated that the strait will remain blocked until the US meets the conditions listed in the June interim agreement, including lifting its own blockade, removing oil sanctions, unfreezing assets, and ending military threats. The US, however, insists that the strait is open and that mines have been cleared, with both sides holding strongly opposed positions.(4) Supply-side uncertainties continue to accumulate. The world’s largest oil producer resumed loading crude oil from within the strait last week, but the regular monthly flow of about five hundred million barrels has been sharply reduced. Overall energy prices remain above pre-conflict levels, and the US has even indicated it will claim territorial rights over the strait after the conflict.(5) With the ceasefire agreement expiring and not extended, US-Iran negotiations have stalled, further slowing passage in the region. According to United Nations data, six months of conflict have resulted in the deaths of seventeen seafarers, with vessel traffic dropping by about ninety percent. Many ships have shut off navigation equipment for self-preservation, and uncertainty over passage through the Strait of Hormuz is once again dominating sentiment in the oil market.