Is the Strait of Hormuz Really Open? Mixed Signals from Multiple Sources

(1) The market is closely monitoring the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. Although it is widely believed that the waterway is in effect under the control of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and is essentially closed, some analysts have pointed out that Iran may be approaching the limits of its ability to exert pressure. (2) BCA Research macro strategist cited statements from US Energy Secretary Wright, noting that a report last weekend showed that approximately 75% to 80% of normal oil flows had resumed passage through the strait. Although reports from shipping companies have not yet confirmed these figures, signs such as rising global inventories are consistent with the assessment that more crude oil is now passing through. (3) The US, regional governments, and shipping companies are gradually exploring ways to bypass Iran's restrictions, including organizing escort fleets and ships switching off transponders, similar to the responses during the Tanker War of the 1980s. As long as the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz continues, uncertainty in the energy market will persist.