Scope Ratings: US public finance becomes increasingly dependent on the Federal Reserve, with reliance on short-term debt raising refinancing risks

⑴ Scope Ratings analyst Eiko Sievert pointed out that U.S. public finances are increasingly dependent on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate trajectory. While the Treasury's reliance on short-term Treasury bills helps control financing costs in the short term, it also significantly increases refinancing risks.⑵ Scope expects that by 2030, the ratio of U.S. public debt to GDP will rise from 124% in 2025 to 138%. This level is higher than that of all Eurozone countries, although still lower than Japan’s 200%, but the growth trajectory of the debt scale is worth noting.⑶ However, the agency emphasized that a high debt-to-GDP ratio does not necessarily imply severe refinancing risks; factors such as debt maturity structure and the U.S. dollar’s special status as a global safe-haven currency also play a crucial role.