▍Fundamentals First: Two Forces Tugging at the Market
The first force comes from a new round of selling in the US Treasury market. On Monday local time, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury rose nearly 6 basis points to 5.31%, breaking the July highs and reaching the highest level since 2007. What does this mean? The market is increasingly skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s current “conservative” monetary policy—long-term interest rates keep climbing, suppressing the valuation space for risk assets.
The second force stems from geopolitics. On Monday, Trump made it clear he will not seek to extend the previous 60-day ceasefire agreement with Iran, and warned that if Oman "obstructs" US efforts to negotiate with Iran, the US may take military action against them. This signal directly drove up oil prices, and rising oil prices often mean renewed inflationary pressures.
With these two forces combined, US stocks opened high and closed low yesterday, and Asia-Pacific stocks also opened lower today under pressure. For traders, the takeaway is: risk appetite is shrinking in the short term, and the certainty of chasing highs is decreasing.
▍Technical Analysis: Three Major Assets Diverge
1. ETH (Ethereum): No Change in Range-Bound Strategy
ETH continues to remain in a range-bound pattern. Focus on the 1914—1870 range intraday, and 1944—1839 for the broader range. Until a clear breakout, it’s better to adopt a sell-high-buy-low mindset rather than make one-sided bets.
2. SanDisk: Resistance at High Levels, Direction to Be Determined
The upswing since the 1192 low is currently facing noticeable resistance at the highs, and short-term accumulation and adjustments are needed. It’s worth noting, however, that no reversal signal has appeared yet.
Operationally, focus on the key level at 1649:
If it breaks below 1649, look for sell-short opportunities after the US stock market opens tonight;
If it does not break, then the asset is likely to continue oscillating at high levels, and buying opportunities may appear after the adjustment.
3. Hynix: Greater Pressure for Short-Term Correction
Hynix failed to surge yesterday, and short-term correction pressure is even more pronounced than in SanDisk. The main support level is currently at 1175; once breached, a deeper correction begins.
Specific strategy: Wait for a 4-hour level break below 1175, then short upon a rebound to the 1175—1186 range, stop loss at 1231, and target 1100.
▍Finally, a Few Words from the Heart
The market always cycles between ups and downs. What truly tests a trader is not the accuracy of forecasts, but discipline and risk control. This analysis provides a framework and key levels rather than “guaranteed winning moves.”
