Everbright Futures 0818 Gold Commentary: Concerns Over Rising Inflation Persist, Gold Price Gains Narrow

On August 17, COMEX gold continued to rise in volatility, closing at $4,473.1 per ounce, up 0.81%. Domestically, SHFE gold opened lower during the night session and moved higher, closing at 957.80 yuan per gram, up 0.41%.

In terms of geopolitics, the window period for the US-Iran ceasefire agreement expired yesterday, but negotiations between the two sides remain deadlocked. Trump made it clear that he does not seek to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and stated there is “no timetable” to resolve the Iran issue. He also pointed out that if Oman “hinders the US from reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending efforts to stop the Iran war,” the US will bomb Oman. Crude oil prices remain high, US inflation risks persist, which to some extent suppresses market risk appetite, narrowing the increase in gold prices.

In addition, according to data released by the US Department of the Treasury, the total amount of US Treasury bonds held by foreign entities decreased by $72.1 billion month-on-month, dropping to $9.3 trillion in total. Since reaching a record high in February this year, foreign holdings have declined in three out of the past four months. With the release of US inflation data and a significant decrease in the probability of rate hikes, the market once showed profit-taking sentiment. However, as US stagflation deepens, geopolitical risks persist, and central banks reduce US Treasury holdings and buy more gold, these factors provide structural support for gold. Gold may maintain volatile and even relatively strong movements at high levels. Pay attention to resistance near the 4,500 mark in the international gold price.

Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

Written by: Shi Yueming

Professional License: F03097365

Trading Consulting Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan