NYSE on track for zero 80% downside-volume days in 2026

Through August 17, 2026, the New York Stock Exchange has not logged a single trading day where at least 80% of volume belonged to declining stocks. That has literally never happened before in the three decades this metric has been tracked.

Since records began in 1996, every year has produced at least five of these heavy selling sessions. The historical average is 21. This year: zero.

What downside-volume days actually measure

These days aren’t rare curiosities. Averaging 21 per year means they typically show up roughly once every two and a half weeks. The last time the NYSE registered one was October 2025. Since then, more than ten months of trading have passed without a single session where sellers dominated at that 80% threshold. For context, the previous record low for a full calendar year was five such days.

BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky described the streak as an “anomaly,” which, given the data, qualifies as understatement.

A market that forgot how to sell

The S&P 500 has climbed roughly 16% year-to-date, putting it within striking distance of fresh all-time highs. The VIX, Wall Street’s preferred gauge of expected volatility, sank to 14.2 in August, a level that translates to: traders are pricing in smooth sailing.

At 14.2, hedging through options is relatively inexpensive compared to periods of elevated volatility. Strategists have started pointing out that this creates a window for protective positioning before the cost of that protection inevitably rises.

The midterm election year problem

2026 is a midterm election year, and midterm years have a well-documented pattern of punishing equity investors during a very specific window. Since 1990, every single midterm election year has seen the equal-weight S&P 500 decline at least 7% between mid-August and mid-October. Every one.

And the window opens right now. August 18 has historically marked the starting point for this seasonal weakness. So the market is entering a period that has reliably produced significant drawdowns in every analogous year, while simultaneously displaying the lowest selling pressure on record.

Krinsky and other strategists have recommended that investors consider reducing risk or adding hedges ahead of the seasonal weak period.