El Niño disturbances drive temperatures higher, rubber futures fluctuate upward as inventory pressure continues to compete with weather risks

智通财经2026/08/17 09:51

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On Monday, the main contract of Japanese rubber futures closed higher, mainly due to the latest outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center indicating a high probability that the El Niño phenomenon will continue to strengthen before the end of the year, triggering market concerns about disruptions in natural rubber supply.
At the Osaka Exchange, the January delivery contract rose to 428.3 yen per kilogram, and the January contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved higher in tandem. The increase in the butadiene rubber contract was more significant, reflecting the transmission effect of cost-side support for synthetic rubber.
Economists at the International Rubber Study Group pointed out that if crude oil and raw material costs remain high, coupled with substantial disruptions to rubber-producing countries caused by El Niño, natural rubber prices are likely to receive additional support. However, if oil prices retreat or weather impacts are weaker than expected, the support will diminish accordingly, as the current supply and demand landscape is still relatively loose and consumption growth momentum is limited.
Inventories of rubber monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a slight uptick compared to last Friday, indicating that the domestic inventory build-up trend continues, to some extent limiting upward price potential.
According to a report from Japan Exchange Group, current prices are oscillating within the 410 to 435 yen per kilogram range, and the market still requires an effective breakout to confirm a clearer direction. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the actual development of El Niño and demand data from major consuming countries.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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El Niño disturbances drive temperatures higher, rubber futures fluctuate upward as inventory pressure continues to compete with weather risks

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