Bitcoin stock futures update: Fed rate hike odds drop to 25%

Bitcoin punched back above $64,000 during Asian trading hours on Monday, giving crypto markets a brief jolt of energy even as the week behind it told a rougher story. This latest Bitcoin stock futures update captures a market caught between a modest crypto rebound, a cooling US consumer, and traders quietly rewriting their bets on the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin crossed $64,000 in Asian trading Monday, up about 0.5% on the day but still down nearly 3% for the week.
• Hyperliquid’s HYPE token was the standout performer, climbing 9% over the week to around $59.
• US retail sales posted their sharpest monthly drop in over a year, cutting the odds of a Fed rate hike next month to roughly one in four, down from about 50% a week earlier.
• US stock futures were little changed Sunday night ahead of earnings from Walmart and Target this week.
• Brent crude jumped nearly 6% on Friday to $88.52 a barrel amid escalating US-Iran tension over the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin and the Crypto Market’s Mixed Week

Bitcoin’s move past $64,000 looks stronger in isolation than it does against the backdrop of the past seven days. The token is up roughly half a percent on the day, but it remains down nearly 3% over the week, a reminder that even a green Monday doesn’t erase a bruising stretch. Most of the broader crypto market followed a similar pattern over the weekend: small overnight gains layered on top of a week that mostly ended in the red.

Ethereum, XRP, and Solana all lost ground over the seven-day period, even as they posted minor upticks on Sunday. Ethereum rose slightly above 1% to approach $1,900 despite posting a weekly decline of 1%. XRP edged marginally higher to around $1 but sits roughly 3% lower than it did seven days ago. Solana ticked up to just over $75, down nearly 2% for the week, while BNB slipped slightly to about $604 and finished essentially flat.

The one clear outlier was Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, which rose more than 3% on the day and around 9% for the week, landing near $59. That made it the only major token to post a meaningful weekly gain, standing apart in a cryptocurrency weekly performance picture that otherwise skewed negative. Dogecoin, for its part, added close to 1% but couldn’t fully offset its own weekly losses.

Why does this matter beyond the charts? A weakening US dollar is part of the backdrop. A Bloomberg gauge tracking the dollar slipped 0.1%, marking a third straight decline and pushing the currency to levels last seen in May. Meanwhile, an MSCI index tracking emerging-market currencies hit an intraday record, led by gains in the Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht — a sign that capital may be rotating away from the greenback and into other assets, crypto included.

Stock Futures Hold Steady Before a Big Retail Week

US stock futures barely moved Sunday night, a calm that traders are likely to view as the quiet before a potentially noisy week. Dow Jones futures showed no movement, S&P 500 futures remained unchanged, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up just 0.1%. That stillness reflects a market waiting on hard data rather than guessing at direction.

The headline event is retail earnings. Walmart and Target are both set to report results this week, and their numbers will do more than move two stock prices — they’ll offer a real-time gauge of how American consumers are holding up after a rough retail sales report. Given that consumer spending underpins a huge share of US economic activity, these earnings carry outsized weight for anyone trying to read where the broader economy is headed next.

Retail Sales Slump Rewrites Fed Rate Hike Odds

The most consequential number in this Bitcoin stock futures update may not be a price at all — it’s the retail sales report released Friday, which showed the sharpest monthly drop in over a year. That single data point did more to move Fed expectations than almost anything else on the calendar this month.

Traders now price in roughly a one-in-four chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, a sharp reversal from about 50% odds just a week earlier. That’s a significant swing in sentiment for a single week, and it underscores just how sensitive markets have become to consumer-spending signals. Weaker retail sales suggest a softening economy, which in turn reduces the case for tightening monetary policy further.

This is where the story connects back to Walmart and Target. Their earnings this week will either confirm the retail sales weakness or complicate it, and either outcome could shift Fed expectations yet again before Wednesday’s minutes even land.

US-Iran Tensions Push Oil Prices Sharply Higher

Geopolitics is adding another layer of pressure to markets already digesting mixed economic signals. Tension between the United States and Iran continues to simmer, centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil shipments. President Trump said the US could take over the strait after defeating Iran, a comment that drew a pointed response from Iran’s Major General Amir Hatami, who said America would regret such a move.

Oil markets reacted accordingly. Friday saw Brent crude advance by nearly 6% to reach $88.52 per barrel, whereas West Texas Intermediate closed at $82.40. Both contracts edged slightly higher again on Sunday. A sustained rise in oil prices matters well beyond energy traders — it feeds directly into inflation expectations, which in turn could complicate the Fed’s already delicate rate-hike calculus just as it looked to be easing.

Wall Street’s Weekly Scorecard and the Fed Minutes Ahead

Major US indices closed last week with a split decision. The Dow Jones ended down 0.6%, snapping a two-week winning streak, while the S&P 500 finished up 0.4% and remains up 13.7% since the start of the year. The Nasdaq finished the week with a 0.1% gain and stands at now up 15% year to date — a reminder that even amid retail sales jitters and geopolitical noise, the broader equity rally hasn’t lost its footing.

All eyes now turn to Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July 28-29 meeting at 2 p.m. ET. Those minutes will show how close the committee actually came to raising rates before last week’s retail sales data upended expectations. Combined with earnings from Walmart and Target, this week could deliver the clearest read yet on whether the Fed’s next move leans toward caution or continued restraint.

FAQ

What was the recent price movement of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin reached $64,000 during Asian trading on Monday, up about 0.5% on the day but down nearly 3% over the past week.

How did Hyperliquid’s HYPE token perform last week?

HYPE rose nearly 9% over the week, reaching around $59, outperforming most major cryptocurrencies during the same period.

What is the outlook for the Federal Reserve rate hike next month?

Traders now price in roughly a one-in-four chance of a Fed rate hike next month, down from about 50% a week ago, following weaker-than-expected retail sales data.

Which major US retailers are reporting earnings this week and why is it important?

Walmart and Target are set to report earnings this week, offering insight into consumer spending after the sharpest retail sales drop in over a year.

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Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.