web3: Bitcoin faces downward pressure, XRP approaches the $1 threshold

The crypto market weakened again over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has retreated to around 62,900 USD, while XRP is hovering near the 1 USD mark. The main reasons for the market pressure stem from three factors: slowed progress in US regulation, renewed net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, and continued rise in long-term US Treasury yields.

US regulatory progress slows again

Progress on the Clarity Act in the US Senate has stalled, undermining expectations for clearer crypto regulation. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly set to delay the “innovation exemption” arrangement once again.

This arrangement was originally considered an important supporting measure for tokenized securities trading, aiming to provide clearer operational space for relevant transactions on blockchain networks within the existing securities law framework. Reports indicate the White House and Wall Street have concerns about its legal basis and market impact.

Additionally, the SEC’s advancement of “Reg Crypto” has also been postponed. The rule was intended to create a framework for funding token projects, but the regulator has temporarily delayed the public meeting scheduled for Friday, with no new date provided.

Bitcoin ETF sees renewed net outflows

The financial side also provided no support. US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced approximately 333 million USD in net outflows so far this week, reversing last week’s net inflow of about 853 million USD.

• Net outflows this week: approximately 333 million USD
• Net inflows last week: approximately 853 million USD
• Net outflows year-to-date: over 4 billion USD

Year-to-date, these funds have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding 4 billion USD, indicating that institutional capital has not formed a sustained return. For the market, the ETF capital movement is often considered an important indicator of mainstream risk appetite.

30-year US Treasury yield rises to 5.22%

Macro pressures are also mounting. On Thursday, the US Treasury auctioned 25 billion USD in 30-year bonds, with yields reaching 5.22%. Some traders state that this level is the highest since 2001.

Rising long-term yields mean higher financing costs and also increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets. For assets like Bitcoin, which do not generate cash yields, this typically compresses short-term risk appetite.

Against this backdrop, the 1 USD threshold for XRP has become a focal point for the market. If this level is breached, it could further amplify portfolio liquidation. Reports note that many traders established positions below this level at the end of 2024, making it psychologically significant.

However, the market is not entirely turning bearish. Some researchers still believe that if capital flows and risk appetite improve, the crypto market may see a strong rebound in the final months of this year.