LIVE MARKETS-Benchmark Treasury yield breakout holds as Fed clouds rate outlook 

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BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD BREAKOUT HOLDS AS FED CLOUDS RATE OUTLOOK

U.S. Treasury yields continued their climb Thursday, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest level in 19 years as investors parsed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. His remarks added uncertainty to the Fed's policy outlook, helping push long-dated Treasury yields higher as investors reassessed the path of rates and inflation.

Wednesday's Fed meeting left investors with little clarity. Policymakers left interest rates unchanged, but the decision was far from unanimous, with three members of the Federal Open Market Committee voting for an immediate rate hike. That split left markets searching for direction, raising concerns that mixed signals from the central bank could fuel volatility across stocks and bonds.

Meanwhile, June PCE inflation largely matched expectations, advance second-quarter GDP growth missed forecasts, and weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected.

Against that backdrop, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR is up around 6 basis points to 4.68%. Last week, it hit 4.7135%, its highest level since January 2025.

From a technical standpoint, the advance continues to validate the recent breakout from a long-term symmetrical triangle pattern.

Supporting that view, the monthly Bollinger BandWidth indicator is on track to rise for a third straight month after falling to its lowest level since May 1989 at the end of May, suggesting volatility is expanding from unusually compressed levels.

The next upside hurdles are the April 2024 high of 4.739% and the January 2025 peak of 4.809%. If those levels give way, attention could shift to the October 2023 high of 5.021%. The upper yearly Bollinger Band, near 5.00%, sits close to that mark. For broader historical context, the January 2007 high stands at 5.333%.

On the downside, initial support is seen around 4.582%. For the breakout to begin losing credibility, yields would likely need to fall below the former triangle resistance near 4.54%.

For now, the broader technical picture remains constructive. As long as the 10-year yield holds above its 20-month moving average, just under 4.30%, the longer-term bullish trend remains intact.

(Terence Gabriel)

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)