U.S. 2Q GDP Growth Lands Inside 10-Yr Historical WSJ Forecasting Range

By Jessica Coacci

U.S. gross domestic product grew 1.5% in the initial estimate for the second quarter, inside a range of Wall Street Journal historical forecasts for the indicator.

For select economic indicators, including the GDP report, Dow Jones Newswires measures whether a reported statistic falls outside a historical range of Journal forecasting, and if so, by how much. Those forecast ranges are based on an archive of surveys of economists the Journal has conducted over the past decade.

The ranges are made up of the median of forecasts over 10 years that came in lower than the reported number and the median of forecasts that came in higher.

For this second-quarter GDP release, the range of forecasts relative to the actual reported number over that period was between -0.3 percentage point and +0.45 percentage point.

The lower-than-expected growth in the second quarter was 0.3 percentage point below a Wall Street Journal forecast of 1.8%.

The gauge provides a way to measure the relative volatility of any one particular indicator, compared not just with a contemporary forecast in the days ahead of an indicator's release, but also with its track record surprising forecasters over time.

Write to Jessica Coacci at jessica.coacci@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 30, 2026 08:58 ET (12:58 GMT)