Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1026 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in European trade while the dollar edges lower after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference left some uncertainty about the policy outlook. The 30-year yield extends its rise to hit a new 19-year high of 5.240%, according to Tradeweb. "Investors demanded greater compensation for longer-term inflation and policy uncertainty," The Revacy Fund's Zaheer Anwari says in a note. The Fed held rates but three members dissented and favored a hike. "The result was...a divided decision that revealed growing concern over persistent inflation," Anwari says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 100.820. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

1016 GMT - Despite a positive surprise for economic growth in the second quarter, the European Central Bank is unlikely to consider raising interest rates higher than 2.50%, from 2.25% currently, Alexander Krueger at ABN AMRO says in a note. "The economy is making up for what it lost in the first quarter. At that time, Ireland was holding the economy back; now it is helping to drive economic growth," he says. Given the added strain from the Iran war, 0.4% growth for the quarter is positive. Still, a prolonged Middle East conflict would delay a return to normalcy, the analyst says. The ECB will have to keep a close eye on economic developments as well as inflation, he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

1004 GMT - Anglo American isn't in exclusive negotiations with a potential buyer of its diamond business De Beers, CEO Duncan Wanblad says in an interview on CNBC. The miner is in the final rounds of negotiations with counterparties, he says. Anglo American shares rise 1.8% to 3,667 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

1002 GMT - The cost of default protection for Middle East nations' sovereign debt climbs as U.S.-Iran hostilities intensify. The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran on Wednesday night after Iran attacked U.S. forces in Jordan. The renewed tensions raise concerns "that the conflict could widen again after several days of calm", Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. Bahrain's five-year sovereign credit default swaps rise 4 basis points to 309bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. Qatar's five-year sovereign CDS climbs 1bp to 38bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0954 GMT - With the surprisingly strong 0.2% increase in second-quarter GDP and upward revisions of past quarters, Germany's economic recovery has been more pronounced than previously expected, Commerzbank's Joerg Kraemer says in a note. Germany's statistics agency upgraded first-quarter growth to 0.4% from 0.3%, while also raising 2024 output to zero growth from a 0.5% contraction previously reported. "All in all, this significantly improves the starting base for our 2026 growth forecast, which is why we are revising it upwards from 0.6% to 1.0%," Kraemer says. However, recent escalation of the Iran war is still likely to dampen any recovery in the second half of this year, though that has already been taken into account in Commerzbank's new forecast, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0954 GMT - European indexes turn increasingly positive as the trading day progresses as oil prices pare gains and sentiment improves. The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 is last up 0.45%, after opening flat. London's FTSE 100 rises 0.5% to a new intraday record, led by a 5.5% jump for defense giant Rolls-Royce after posting earnings. Banks and miners in the index also gain. In Paris, the CAC 40 rises 0.9%. Schneider Electric jumps 6.8% after upgrading its full-year targets, while French luxuries also strengthen. Germany's DAX ticks into the green--up 0.1%--as utilities and autos rise, even as Adidas extends losses to fall close to 18%. Banks help Spain's IBEX 35 trade up 1.2%, while the Dutch AEX gains 0.8%. The Italian FTSE MIB is flat. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0950 GMT - Sterling would likely rise if the Bank of England's policy decision at 1100 GMT strengthens market pricing for an interest-rate rise in September, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. The BOE could convey increased concerns over the implications of the Middle East conflict, he says. A conflict that drags on appears a greater risk today than at the June meeting, he says. A more prolonged energy price rise could "certainly force the BOE to act even in circumstances of mixed labor market conditions." The market prices a 50% chance of a rate rise in September, LSEG data show. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3357. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8571 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0940 GMT - Saudi Arabia's second-quarter downturn was less severe than feared but still pushed the economy into technical recession, Capital Economics says in a note. Non-oil activity held up better than expected and Capital Economics expects the quarter to mark the worst of the conflict's economic impact. However, renewed disruption to oil exports could make the recovery uneven, it says. GDP contracted 4.9% from the previous quarter after falling 1.2% in the first quarter, as oil activity plunged 21.5% while non-oil activity slipped 0.5%. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0934 GMT - Germany's economy defied a depressed mood and worries related to the Iran conflict in the second quarter, ING's Carsten Brzeski says in a note. German GDP rose by 0.2%, from an upwardly revised 0.4% in the first quarter. Growth was mainly driven by exports, as industry benefited after Asian competitors were hit harder by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It marks the first time since the end of the pandemic lockdowns that the economy managed not to shrink for four consecutive quarters, Brezki says. Even if the outlook is highly dependent on energy prices and the war, if the economy stagnates until the end of 2026 then annual GDP growth would come in at 0.9%, the best performance since 2022, he notes. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0932 GMT - Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's reaction function to inflationary risks leaves the dollar vulnerable, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh provided little explanation for the central bank's decision to leave rates steady Wednesday, he says. Risks are skewed towards a further curve steepening with long-end yields rising more than short-end yields, he says. This tends to coincide with dollar depreciation, he says. "Fed credibility is being questioned today and after a big jump in inflation expectations the dollar outlook has certainly worsened." The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.966, having reached a one-week low of 100.762 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0932 GMT - The U.K. faces fragile economic growth, which reduces the prospects of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months, CG Asset Management's Emma Moriarty says in a note. Markets widely expect the BOE to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% when it announces a rate decision at 1100 GMT. Given high oil prices due to the Middle East conflict and rising inflation concerns, investors currently fully price in a quarter-point BOE rate increase in November, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0928 GMT - The Amsterdam District Court's ruling against Shell in its claim against Clariant is a significant victory for the Swiss chemical company, Jefferies analysts Marcus Dunford-Castro and Helena Xu write. The court dismissed a damage claim brought by Shell against the group and three other defendants related to alleged competition law infringement. "We see today's ruling as supportive for sentiment and from a precedent perspective," they say. Jefferies has an underperform rating on the stock and a 6.00 Swiss Franc target price. Clariant shares are up 17% at 9.01 Swiss Francs. (ian.walker@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 30, 2026 06:26 ET (10:26 GMT)