Peng Fu: AI infrastructure stocks have already shown the characteristics of "old bull stocks"; liquidity assets such as bitcoin may complete their valuation correction ahead of the stock market.

According to ChainCatcher, Bitfire Group Chief Economist Fu Peng stated that the AI industry is currently in the transition period from the midstream to the downstream. The infrastructure layer, represented by Nvidia, has reached a mature stage, displaying characteristics of a "veteran stock," but the downstream application layer has yet to see a milestone breakthrough similar to ChatGPT. Over the next 10 to 18 months, the industry will go through a cyclical transition period. He pointed out that, in the second half of the AI race, the focus is no longer on repeatedly burning money to build infrastructure, but on whether AI, as an efficiency tool entering real industries, can achieve stable payments, profits, and proliferation.

He also noted that at present, market capital is following a "shrinking circle" logic, prioritizing the clearance of peripheral, highly volatile, and cash flow-lacking speculative assets, and increasingly converging on the most core, highly certain targets. Pure liquidity assets on the denominator side, such as Bitcoin, often absorb valuation pressure ahead of the traditional stock market.

He further mentioned that storage DRAM and HBM are, at their core, commodities and cannot escape the cyclical nature of commodities. When an industry’s fundamentals are extremely solid and volatility drops to very low levels, the excessive buildup of off-market financial leverage often becomes the hidden trigger for a crash. When deleveraging occurs, even if a company's fundamentals are healthy, prices can still fluctuate sharply.