US natural gas futures have fallen to a nearly three-month low, as high production combines with abundant inventories and mild spring weather leads to excessive reserve accumulation.

智通财经2026/07/28 19:31

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US natural gas futures fell about 2% on Tuesday to a near three-month low, with the main contract trading around $2.72 per million British thermal units, pressured by record-high production, milder-than-expected weather over the next two weeks, and a weakening demand outlook.
Warmer spring weather allowed energy companies to significantly build up inventories before summer, keeping stockpiles persistently above the five-year average for the period. Although many regions have had higher-than-normal temperatures so far this summer, near-record production levels and subdued demand expectations are contributing to a relatively loose supply situation.
Gas flows to LNG export terminals have slightly declined to about 17.2 billion cubic feet per day due to maintenance at Freeport, lower than June levels and the monthly record set in April, further undermining price support.
The price spread between contracts for March and April next year has narrowed to a historical low of about 15 cents, indicating the market has extremely limited concerns over tight winter supply. This spread is known as the "widow maker," as extreme volatility has previously caused huge losses for hedge funds.
Meteorological forecasts show that temperatures will remain above normal before mid-August, but the heat will not be as intense as previously expected. Demand for next week is projected at around 112.6 billion cubic feet per day, which is higher than this week but revised lower from Monday's forecast.

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