Markets May Be Overpricing Fed Rate Increase -- Market Talk

0410 GMT - The probability of a Fed-rate increase are being priced unusually high by markets, notes Pictet Wealth Management. "While we cannot entirely rule out the risk of a surprise hike, current market pricing looks too high," says senior U.S. economist Xiao Cui in a note. Cui reckons the latest U.S. inflation data and Fedspeak reinforce expectations for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% this week. However, officials continue to view inflation as the more dominant policy risk, leaving the door open to tightening as early as September, she says. Cui also sees the likelihood of two dissents in favor of a 25bp rate hike from regional Fed presidents Logan and Hammack, with a possible third from Kashkari. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 28, 2026 00:10 ET (04:10 GMT)