Citi: India’s gold imports expected to be weak in Q3; short-term gold price target at $4,500 but faces multiple downside risks

智通财经2026/07/28 04:56

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Citi points out that although the third quarter is typically a seasonal peak for inventory stocking, due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and domestic price discounts suppressing demand for fresh imports, India's gold imports are expected to remain subdued this quarter.
The bank maintains its short-term 0-3 month gold target price at $4500/oz, but this assumes a de-escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Federal Reserve adopting a less hawkish policy stance.
Citi warns that there are still numerous short-term risks that could lead to a further decline in gold prices, including a major further escalation in the Middle East, AI-driven de-risking operations triggering market sell-offs, and the Federal Reserve maintaining a persistently hawkish stance.

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