The risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike rises this week; if there is an unexpected move, the US dollar may reach a new high.

1. The Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Due to this month's significant increase in oil prices and the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, more major brokerage firms believe that the possibility of a rate hike this week is indeed not to be ignored.2. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 37.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce at least a 25 basis point rate hike at this meeting, significantly higher than the 16% probability from a week ago. At the same time, the market's expected probability for a rate hike at the September meeting has reached 81%.3. Mahjabeen Zaman, Head of FX Research at ANZ, stated in a podcast that if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates, it will provide strong support for the dollar, which could reach a new high. In particular, compared to low-yield currencies such as the yen and the franc, the dollar is expected to maintain strong performance.