Investors weigh the impact of the US-Iran pause in military strikes, oil prices fall 1% to a one-week low

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智通财经2026/07/28 04:21

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On Tuesday, international oil prices continued their decline, with Brent crude futures falling as much as 1.2% from Monday’s settlement to $87.40 per barrel, and US WTI crude dropping as much as 1.4% to $81.43 per barrel, both hitting their lowest intraday levels in over a week. The market is still digesting the US decision to pause military action against Iran, which has raised expectations for easing tensions through diplomatic channels and restoring Middle East energy supplies.
US President Trump stated on Monday that the US and Iran are engaged in “good dialogue” and may reach a solution, but also warned that airstrikes would resume if negotiations fail. Iran has issued similar retaliatory statements. IG analysts pointed out that the emergence of a “way out” has temporarily eased upward pressure on oil prices, but the overall situation remains highly volatile.
In Yemen, Houthi forces intend to replicate Iran’s control model of the Strait of Hormuz in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Analysts believe that, although it is questionable whether the Houthis possess the military capability for a full blockade, shipping volumes in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have already dropped significantly. Meanwhile, weakening demand, especially from Asia, has also been a key factor preventing oil prices from rising further.
A Barclays report on Monday showed that, as of the week ending July 24, net exports of crude oil and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million barrels per day, down about 50% from 5.9 million barrels the previous week, reflecting persistently low traffic through this route.
In addition, preliminary surveys suggest that US crude oil and gasoline inventories may have declined last week, while distillate inventories are likely to have risen.

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