Everbright Futures 0728 Gold Commentary: With the Fed's Decision Approaching, Gold Prices Struggle to Rise

　　On July 27, COMEX gold opened high and closed lower, settling at $4,065.1/oz, down 0.29%. In the domestic market, SHFE Gold during the night session consolidated around 900 points but failed to break through, closing at 891.12 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.18%.

　　In June, US core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and non-defense capital goods) rose 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations and indicating continued solid corporate equipment investment; May figures were revised up to 1.9%. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran are engaged in "very in-depth negotiations," showing patience and ample time to reach an agreement, but also indicated that if diplomatic efforts fail, military action against Iran will resume. The US-Iran conflict has pressed the pause button once again, driving oil prices sharply lower. Gold prices have shown limited reaction; the persistently hawkish expectations for the Fed's July FOMC meeting amid sticky inflation is likely the main reason.

　　In the short term, the main strategy remains defensive in response to high volatility, awaiting the outcome of the FOMC meeting. With market conditions still uncertain, it is advisable to observe with light positions. On the geopolitical front, be alert for sudden news regarding US-Iran negotiations, as any progress may trigger sharp, immediate fluctuations in oil and gold prices. The Fed meeting outcome is largely expected, but it is important to watch for any surprises in its statement.

　　Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Author: Shi Yueming

　　Professional Qualification: F03097365

　　Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan