The Swedish krona may see a turnaround as Rabobank bets on rising rate hike expectations, with inflation and growth data becoming key catalysts.

智通财经2026/07/27 17:01

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Rabobank analyst Jane Foley pointed out that if the prospect of a rate hike by the Riksbank is further strengthened, the Swedish krona may experience a mild appreciation by the end of the year. The current exchange rate level does not fully reflect the risks of policy tightening.
Tax-cut measures targeting workers, pensioners, and businesses, alongside a reduction in food VAT, are expected to suppress inflation readings in the short term. However, Foley believes that this dampening effect will fade next year, at which point rate hike pressures will return significantly.
Institutions emphasized that to boost market pricing of expectations for Riksbank’s policy tightening and to provide ongoing appreciation momentum for the krona, Sweden’s economic growth and inflation data will likely need to exceed broad market expectations in the coming months.
At present, EUR/SEK is quoted at 11.0510, up slightly by 0.1% on the day. The market is still digesting the cross-effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy. If upcoming inflation readings unexpectedly rise, the upward momentum for the krona will be reinforced.
It is important to pay close attention to Riksbank official statements and signals for a core inflation turning point. In addition, external factors such as the ECB’s policy path and changes in global risk appetite will also affect the performance of the krona.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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The Swedish krona may see a turnaround as Rabobank bets on rising rate hike expectations, with inflation and growth data becoming key catalysts.

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