US Durable Goods Orders in June Fall Far Short of Expectations, Transmission Logic Under Monitoring

June U.S. durable goods orders increased by 0.3% month-on-month, far below the expected +2.5%; previous value revised upward. Market pricing reactions: ─ Spot gold: +0.82% ─ COMEX gold futures: +0.44% ─ Shanghai gold futures: +1.10% ─ U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: +0.19% (currently at 4.641%) ─ U.S. Dollar Index: -0.05% Cross-market deviation observations: The data was significantly below expectations, which should be bullish for gold and bearish for the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Gold's gains are consistent with this, but the U.S. Dollar Index only slipped by 0.05%, barely reflecting the bearish data; meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 0.19% instead of falling, deviating from risk-off or rate-cut expectations. Pay attention to whether the dollar and long-term Treasury yields' "insensitivity" to the data is due to distortions from national defense/transportation components or the upward revision of previous values. If these deviations persist, it indicates that the market is placing higher importance on upcoming PCE data.