Markets Face Biggest Week of the Year -- What -2-

The retail industry is projecting record spending on back-to-school items even though shoppers are definitely hunting for bargains and spacing out spending. The National Retail Federation sees spending rising to $146.8 billion, eclipsing spending for Mother's Day, Father's Day, Easter, and the Super Bowl combined.

-- Shoppers with children in kindergarten through 12th grade are expected to spend a record $43.3 billion this year, while spending on college students will reach a record $103.5 billion, the highest level since at least 2003, NRF predicts.

-- Half of the people surveyed by NRF plan to buy only the essentials for the start of school and replenish as needed. Others say they're cutting back on other spending areas (37%) to afford back-to-school items, using buy-now, pay-later options (20%), or willing to work overtime hours (17%).

-- Spending for students in kindergarten through high school is expected to average $863.86 on back-to-school this year, up from $858.07 in 2025, according to the NRF. College student spending is expected to average a record $1,437.79, up from last year's $1,325.85.

-- Twenty states now offer temporary sales tax holidays for back to school, but the nonprofit Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy's analysis found that they don't deliver much relief from high prices for lower-income families, while draining nearly $600 million from state and local budgets.

What's Next: "Even during challenging economic years, back to school is a super resilient consumer spending event," said Allison Zeller, NRF's vice president, consumer and industry insights. For Walmart, Target, Costco, and others, it's also the last major read on consumer spending before the winter holidays.

-- Janet H. Cho

-- Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O'Donnell, Rupert Steiner

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 27, 2026 06:41 ET (10:41 GMT)