Expected rainfall combined with easing geopolitical risks has pushed Nordic electricity prices to a one-week low, with gas price linkage effects dominating short-term sentiment.

(1) On Monday, the previous quarter contract prices in the Nordic electricity market fell by about 3%, reaching the lowest level in nearly a week, mainly due to the resonance of dual factors. (2) The news from last weekend that the United States and Iran have paused military confrontation continues to ferment, causing natural gas and electricity prices across continental Europe to drop sharply, with previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums seeing concentrated release at this stage. (3) Meanwhile, weather forecasts show that the Nordic region will experience extensive and sustained rainfall, particularly in the western and northern areas, where precipitation generally exceeds normal levels for this period and temperatures are also trending lower. This provides a direct supply-side boost for the Nordic electricity system, which relies on hydropower. (4) Industry institutions point out that this price drop is not purely driven by sentiment—an increase in precipitation has raised reservoir water levels and enhanced hydropower output capacity, offering fundamental support for the price decline. (5) Latest data show that the gap in water resource reserves in the Nordic region has significantly narrowed from nearly 19 terawatt hours previously to around 17 terawatt hours currently, reflecting a marginal shift in the supply-demand structure. The market's subsequent focus will be on the actual evolution of weather patterns and the rhythm of external energy prices' transmission.