The pound is hanging by a thread: interest rates remain unchanged amid fiscal uncertainty, and bears are sharpening their knives.

(1) A preview of an institutional analysis report indicates that the Bank of England is highly likely to keep current interest rates unchanged this Thursday, and the domestic fiscal trajectory remains unclear. Under multiple restraining factors, the GBP exchange rate may face further downside risk. (2) Institutions expect the Monetary Policy Committee to pass the decision to hold steady by a seven-to-two vote, with member Greene and Chief Economist Pill again likely to favor a rate hike. (3) The report also warns that the actual risk direction leans more towards an expansion of the minority camp supporting rate hikes, or Governor Bailey issuing suggestive signals of policy tightening for the autumn after the meeting. (4) If the above hawkish scenario does not materialize, with fiscal policy under Prime Minister Burnham continuing to lack a clear framework and persistently weighing down the exchange rate, institutions maintain a moderately bearish outlook for GBP's short-term performance.