New York crude oil falls below $91 in after-hours trading, Barclays warns that if the deadlock persists for three months, oil prices could test $150

⑴ The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for the September contract fell by about 3.1% to around $89, while Brent crude oil futures for the September contract concurrently dropped by about 3.9% to near $97. In after-hours trading, both fell below the $91 and $93 levels, respectively. Although the cumulative weekly gains still reached approximately 9.2% and 9.9%, marking a rebound for the third consecutive week, the significant pullback on Friday suggests that short-term profit-taking pressure is mounting. ⑵ Geopolitical premium remains the core support for oil prices. The sharp decline in shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has sparked concerns over supply disruptions. However, navigation data shows structural divergence—shipping volume through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has partially recovered, with some vessels that previously turned back now resuming their journeys, indicating that shipping companies are refining their risk assessments for different routes. ⑶ Barclays has released a scenario analysis indicating that if the stalemate at the Strait of Hormuz lasts one to three months, compared to the bank's baseline forecast of $96 per barrel for Brent crude in 2026, there is a risk of per-barrel prices rising by about $2, $7, or $10, respectively. Should the impasse persist for more than three months, spot oil prices could test the $150 per barrel level. ⑷ Futures position data shows that bulls are still increasing their positions. For the week ending July 21, WTI crude oil speculators added around 8,300 net long positions, bringing the total to 78,000. However, the market is currently in a tug-of-war between geopolitical risk premium and demand concerns. Statements from the US Secretary of Energy regarding the country's leadership in nuclear energy, as well as global economic concerns triggered by Trump's comments on tariffs, are collectively creating resistance to further price rises.