The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged as expected. The inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to be fully released, and the policy stance remains cautiously hawkish.

⑴ The European Central Bank announced on Thursday that it will keep its three key interest rates unchanged: the deposit rate remains at 2.25%, the refinancing rate stays at 2.40%, and the marginal lending rate holds at 2.65%, all in line with market expectations. ⑵ In its statement, the central bank noted that although energy prices remain highly volatile, the current level is close to the baseline forecast from June staff projections and is significantly higher than before the Middle East conflict, signaling that upward pressure on energy costs continues to pose inflation concerns. ⑶ The ECB emphasized that uncertainty remains elevated; the full inflationary effects stemming from the energy shock have not yet fully materialized, suggesting that even though some inflation indicators have eased recently, policymakers are reluctant to prematurely declare victory over inflation. ⑷ From a trading sentiment perspective, the wording of this decision is cautious, with no signals of imminent rate cuts, indicating that market expectations for further easing within the year may require adjustment, and euro interest rate futures pricing could align more closely with the ECB’s stance. ⑸ Going forward, attention will shift to the president's press conference, where the market will be keenly watching for any clues regarding the September meeting’s intentions and possible adjustments to economic forecasts, particularly regarding the assessment of how sustained energy transmission effects may influence the trajectory of core inflation.