Caixin Futures: Ongoing US-Iran Conflict Continues to Push Crude Oil to High Volatility; Concentrated Methanol Imports Suppress Price Increase

智通财经2026/07/23 13:41

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Crude oil is experiencing high-level volatility, with ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. The US seeks to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, Houthi forces have attacked a tanker carrying Saudi oil, and navigation in the Red Sea faces threats. The short-term situation is unlikely to cool down significantly, and petrochemical products may continue to fluctuate strongly at high levels.
Fuel oil is oscillating at high levels. The US has taken action against Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels, and renewed geopolitical tensions have pushed fuel oil to rebound. Previously, the market’s pricing for escalation was relatively restrained; as the US once again blocks the Strait of Hormuz, short-term supply constraints are markedly increased, so a high-level volatility approach is warranted in the short term.
Asphalt is experiencing high-level oscillation. Today, the price of Shandong 70# heavy-duty asphalt is 4,380 yuan per ton, flat compared to the previous period. International crude oil staying high supports the cost side, but increased supply and weak demand put some pressure on the market. In August, domestic asphalt output from independent refineries totaled 870 thousand tons, an increase of 154 thousand tons from the previous period, up 21.5%; this week, the operating rate was 21.3%, up 0.9% week-on-week.
On the inventory front, as of July 23, inventories at 54 domestic sample asphalt plants stood at 783 thousand tons, up 0.1% from July 20, and up 8.3% year-on-year; inventories at 104 social warehouses were 992 thousand tons, flat compared to July 20, but down 46.6% year-on-year. With both supply and demand for asphalt weak, and inventories at low levels, the rising US-Iran tensions are the main trading logic, so short-term high-level fluctuations are expected.
The outlook for glass suggests low-level volatility. Today, the domestic float glass spot market saw mixed price moves, with downstream buyers purchasing on dips and most procurement still for rigid demand. Weekly float glass inventories stand at 75.29 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 817 thousand heavy boxes week-on-week, a drop of 1.07%, but up 21.64% year-on-year. Technical upgrades are raising costs and keeping supply low. Newly added cold-maintained production lines support short-term rebounds, but the demand outlook remains weak, mid-term supply and demand pressures persist, and low-level oscillation is expected.
For soda ash, the outlook is bearish; the strong supply and weak demand pattern continues, with prices oscillating near the bottom. Few companies are undergoing maintenance recently, keeping supply high, with daily output close to 110 thousand tons. This week, soda ash production was 761.5 thousand tons, up 11.6 thousand tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.55%; as of Thursday, total manufacturer inventory was 1.7813 million tons, up 9 thousand tons from Monday, a rise of 0.51%. In the mid-term, the situation of high supply and weak demand is unlikely to change, so the market is expected to trend towards weak volatility.
Methanol has seen a reduction in long positions. Today, spot prices in Taicang were 2,738, up by 36; in North Inner Mongolia, prices were 2,357.5, up by 15. Today, the domestic methanol market shifted modestly higher alongside the futures market, with trading focus rising at ports, basis stabilizing and consolidating, and concentrated imports along with weak demand resulting in a generally average trading atmosphere. This week, producer inventories were 350.3 thousand tons, down 30.6 thousand tons from the previous period; port inventories were 548.7 thousand tons, up 147.2 thousand tons from the previous period. Recently, import supply has remained high, while both upside and downside have been restricted, so methanol may see intensified high-level volatility.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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