Caixin Futures: Ferrous metals fluctuate at low levels, bullish trend in coking coal emerges

Bitget

News

智通财经2026/07/23 13:41

Show original

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

Steel prices are fluctuating at low levels. Production has shifted from decreasing to increasing, while actual demand continues to weaken. This results in a “supply increase with demand decrease” pattern, with weak demand expectations adding downward pressure on prices. In terms of capital flow, rebar October contract is seeing mainly net long liquidation, while hot-rolled coil October contract is witnessing reductions on both long and short positions, with shorts being cut more significantly. Technically, both contracts saw prices pull back after rallies. Key support lies at the 3,065 yuan per ton level, with resistance near the 40-day moving average. Factory losses are widening, and current prices are already below electric furnace costs in East China, reflecting a low valuation. Inventory pressure persists, but the risk of negative feedback may be limited by supply disruptions in raw material coking coal. In the short term, steel prices are likely to maintain low-level fluctuations.
Iron ore is range-bound at a low level, with global shipments and port arrivals rebounding week-on-week. However, actual shipments await verification due to disruptions. Weekly production of the five major steel products turned to an increase, with hot metal output expected to gradually stabilize, indicating ongoing rigid demand support. On the funds side, the top twenty positions in the September contract are reducing both long and short positions, with a greater reduction in shorts and insufficient impetus for aggressive selling. The market is rebounding on position reduction; watch resistance at the 40-day moving average and support around 735 yuan per ton. Supply disruptions haven’t fully subsided, and the initial stabilization of hot metal production, coupled with stronger crude oil prices pushing up freight cost expectations, may provide bottom support for iron ore. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels.
Coking coal remains in a low and volatile range. Many coal mines in Shanxi are still halted or operating at reduced rates, with a slow resumption pace. New safety regulations continue to put pressure on operations, making a significant rebound in output unlikely in the short term. Coking coal spot prices have entered a price-cutting cycle, with downstream buyers becoming more cautious and traders accelerating discount sales, leading to weak spot market movement. For funds, the September contract sees a net increase in both long and short positions among the top twenty, with a larger increase in longs, resulting in a net long bias. Technically, the market is characterized by “position increase on price rise, position decrease on price drop,” indicating a bullish lead. Resistance is near the 40-day moving average, while support has moved up to around 1,270 yuan per ton. Supply disruptions at origin persist, maintaining a tight balance, but weak downstream demand limits the rebound potential. It is recommended to allocate coking coal as a long position in the raw materials sector.
Coke’s drive remains weak; raw coal prices continue to decline, and coke producer profits have slightly recovered, resulting in overall stable production. Under profitability pressure, steel mills are eager to push down coke prices and are favoring reduced procurement. The main futures contract is trading at a significant discount to spot, meaning market valuations are relatively low. With factory losses widening and the first round of coke price cuts being implemented, there is still space for spot prices to fall. Short-term, the market lacks the momentum for a rebound, and valuation may trend lower. However, the wide basis may limit further downside.
Silicomanganese is weak and volatile, with fundamentals maintaining a weak and stable pattern. Manganese ore port inventories have fallen week-on-week, but demand remains sluggish. Producers’ operating rates are low, with in-plant inventories staying high, reflecting weak market dynamics overall. In terms of capital flow, the September contract’s top twenty positions see increases in both long and short positions, with a larger increase on the short side, signaling a continued bearish tone.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

Head of Iran's Energy Optimization Organization: In the first plan, gasoline prices remain unchanged, but the total allocation is capped at 121 million liters; once used up, refueling will stop. In the second plan, the daily production of 121 million liters of gasoline will be distributed among vehicles, and anyone wishing to exceed their quota must purchase gasoline at the free market price. In the third plan, gasoline quotas are allocated to citizens, with each person receiving 30 liters per

智通财经•2026/08/15 21:11

Head of Iran’s Energy Optimization Organization: As part of three proposals currently under review for managing Iran’s gasoline supply, the country is considering a plan to allocate 30 liters of gasoline per person each month, with this quota being transferable and tradable.

智通财经•2026/08/15 21:06

According to The Information, Nvidia (NVDA.US) is in talks to invest $3 billion in SB Energy as part of the OpenAI data center deal.

智通财经•2026/08/15 19:26